LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Divide And Conquer
2/7SR 160 is the highest in the field by a clear margin, Beckett's yard is running at 20% in the past 14 days, and the steaming market move to 2/7 confirms the trade agrees.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Political Resident
11/1SR 145 is the second highest in the field and Balding's debutants often run into a place; the drift is a concern but the rating earns this slot.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Al Qayed
9/2Two runs, two thirds — consistent if unspectacular; the class drop from previous starts and Haggas's involvement keep him honest for the minor places.
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4Predicted 4th
Next Best
22/1SR 132 is workmanlike and Eve Johnson Houghton's yard is cold at 3%, but debut horses can outrun their odds and 22/1 reflects a live each-way outsider in a thin field.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Buckland Belle
15/8SR 80 leads the field, form string 213212 shows consistent placement, and D:+ GF:+ removes the two most common excuses. Tom Marquand's 16% strike rate seals the booking.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Amarachi
4/1SR 69 with GF:+ going fit and two consecutive placed efforts in form; 4/1 reflects market respect despite a cold trainer yard.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rating
9/2SR 71 is the second-highest in the field, Rossa Ryan books at 18% career strike rate, and a class drop adds a further positive signal.
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4Predicted 4th
Blue Hero
14/1SR 62 with a win last time (form reads 812127) and a class drop; veteran at 8 but the most recent form figure is a 7 indicating he's competitive at this level.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hebridean Nomad
13/2Top of the deterministic model, steamer flag confirmed, distance a positive fit, and Balding's yard ticking over at 12% — the money coming for him at 13/2 is the final argument.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moab
6/1A 24lb weight reduction is a seismic signal, Knight's yard running at 50% in the past fortnight, and Tom Marquand in the saddle — Moab is the chief danger despite drifting in the …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Belle of Kt
17/2Three wins on the bounce at a higher class, now three classes lower with distance a positive fit — Belle of Kt's each-way claims are real at 17/2 despite the going unknown.
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4Predicted 4th
Society Girl
13/2The highest SR in the field at 75 and sole front-runner — she controls the race but may pay the price for doing so alone over this stamina test.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dryburgh
7/1SR 73, distance and going both positive, steaming market, and Oli Rix yard at 20% form. The model has him level with the leader at 6.16 — the price difference of 7/1 vs 10/3 makes…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Shady Bay
10/3Leads the deterministic model at 6.17, steaming in the market, going positive at GF:+. Topweight 10-1 is the risk; at 10/3 the price is thin for a horse needing everything to go r…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pangbourne
5/1Roger Teal at 38% over 14 days is hard to ignore; distance suits (D:+) and SR 65 is competitive in this field at 5/1 each-way terms.
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4Predicted 4th
Decalogue
7/2SR 80 is the class of the field and form string is genuinely improving (-84321), but the market drift from favourite to 7/2 is a concrete red flag I cannot dismiss.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Chipsrdown
7/2Back-to-back wins with the market shortening aggressively on each occasion; model tops the ranking on combined form and speed, and the pace set by a lone front-runner suits a prom…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Timandi
22/1Speed ranks third in the model, recent win at 100/30 is underplayed at 22/1; sits in behind the pace and the trip over a mile-two suits a horse whose last placed efforts all came …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rocket Robyn
14/1The market move is the model's primary driver and informed money at this level rarely lies; 8-day turnaround and a course-distance neutral profile keeps this to a place claim rath…
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4Predicted 4th
Justenzia
13/2Speed score ranks second in the field and distance fits; but a going flag of minus and a trainer on 14% in a 23-runner field limits the ceiling to fourth.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Moon Sand
3/1The O'Brien yard at 20% strike rate, the largest steamer in the race, and a pace map that suits a hold-up runner with a sharp finishing kick — the market is not wrong here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Exchange Student
5/1Form string 70041 reads rightmost as a win, distance and going rated neutral-to-acceptable, and a significant weight rise to 8-12 confirms the handicapper took notice — live at 5/…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Romance
10/3The form string ending in a win at 13/2 is real evidence and the model credits it, but a 0-from-6 cold trainer pulls this back to third — place money only at 10/3.
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4Predicted 4th
Our Boy Bailey
9/1The model's top pick at 5.72 on speed, but a 7lb rise to 9-12 on a 12% trainer strike rate in a race with no clear pace to run at is too many uncertainties at 9/1.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Shoda
25/1Form string /5221- shows two wins and a second in recent completed runs; confirmed steamer today for an O'Brien yard at 20% in 14 days. The market's verdict and the model's top sc…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Blake
14/1A 39lb weight drop for a horse that won last time carrying far more is a serious handicapper advantage; the steamer move today confirms market respect for this comeback.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Light Up The Dark
10/1Steaming from 100/30 to 10/1 in recent runs, distance fit positive, hold-up style set up perfectly by Truth Be Told's lone front-running tempo.
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4Predicted 4th
The Reverend
9/2Mullins yard at 25%, form /511-4 shows course-level class, and W.J. Lee at 16% strike rate is the strongest jockey booking among the hold-up brigade.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Value Pending
4/1Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard at 20% in the last 14 days is the single strongest corroborating signal behind a debut winner stepping up in class; the model ranks her second and th…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Alpine Wedding
4/1Five runs of race experience and a yard at 31% — the hottest strike rate in this field — make Alpine Wedding the most dangerous threat in a tactical seven-furlong heat; the recent…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Curracloe
5/4The debut form scores top of the model's ranking but Murtagh at 9% and no distance or going confirmation temper the case; third is a realistic ceiling at 5/4.
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4Predicted 4th
Damsel In Distress
7/2The model's third-ranked horse carries Colin Keane and positive going and speed drivers; in a muddling pace she could collect fourth if the hold-up runners get a clear run.
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Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Otsana
2/1Hottest trainer in the field at 31%, W.J. Lee at 16%, form of 5-3 outclasses most rivals, and a market compression from 14/1 to 2/1 is the loudest signal available.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
A Good Yarn
10/3The only steamer in the race besides Otsana; market move is the primary positive driver and at 10/3 the money deserves respect in a depleted field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Tourin
12/1Two starts at 7/1 both times suggests the market consistently respects this horse; form of 3-6 is modest but not zero, and Ryan at 8% is workmanlike enough.
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4Predicted 4th
Lilli's Angel
10/1Form reads 9-8-4, a clear improving trajectory across three runs, and Ben Coen at 11% gives this outsider more professional backing than most at the price.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Soul Love
9/4Top of the model ranking at 5.80, positive form, going, and distance fit all confirmed — Burke's yard is live and Jamin retains the ride on a filly whose last three runs show a wi…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Brussels
11/2Ryan Moore at 24% strike rate on a horse from a 20%-striking O'Brien yard is serious money; the 7 on the form string is the only hesitation, but class and connections keep him hon…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Power Blue
9/4Co-favourite with strong speed and going/distance fit, but the inconsistent SPs and modest trainer strike rate cap confidence — third is the realistic ceiling.
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4Predicted 4th
Royal Bay Cen
4/1133 days off the track is a real question mark, but a last-run win and a market that has him at 4/1 suggests connections are quietly confident — best each-way alternative.
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