LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record

Race by Race

LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.

286 Races graded
74 · 26.7% Winners called (Slot 1)
177 · 63.9% Any of 4 came 1st
53.6% Pick-level frame rate
18 Perfect 1-2-3-4 in frame
  1. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:07

    York · Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Loz Vegas

      8/1

      Chapple-Hyam at 25% yard form, a 7/4 favourite tag last time out, and a steamer to 8/1 today — the market is correcting, not discovering. Soft ground is the only query, but the di…

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Kissmehoneyhoney

      15/2

      Seven pounds lighter than last run, Tom Marquand booked, and Haggas near a hot 19% yard strike rate — this 15/2 shot is on the right side of the weights and with the right connect…

      Missed — Finished 10th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Ashnak

      4/1

      The model's second pick and the market's steamer; O'Meara at 12% yard form and Tudhope are credible, but the five-pound weight rise and negative going flag cap the ceiling here.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Per Contra

      9/1

      Form reading 048313 shows genuine recent consistency at a class level, and Tim Easterby's 10-from-83 yard form is solid; 9/1 is a workable price for a horse that keeps running int…

      Missed — Finished 8th
  2. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:32

    York · Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      All In You

      9/2

      Greatrex at 27% yard form is the dominant signal in this field; a class drop, a strong prior win marker in the form string, and 9/2 represents fair value for the most in-form stab…

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Alfred Wincham

      11/2

      Patrick Neville's yard is operating at an extraordinary 67% in the last 14 days and a lone front-runner on soft ground over this trip with a weight drop of 8lb is a genuine on-pac…

      Placed — Finished 1st
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Minstrel Knight

      10/1

      Distance and going both tick positively, Tudhope holds the best jockey strike rate in the field at 18%, and the steamer move says the market knows something the form string 020-00…

      Missed — Finished 11th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Master Builder

      15/2

      The model's top-ranked horse gets weight from me here: going tick and class drop are real, but 50 days off and a Menuisier yard at 9% in the last fortnight are hard to dismiss at …

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  3. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:57

    York · Dementia Forward U&Me Ebf Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 3/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Coloniser

      7/2

      Tops the deterministic model at 4.93 and the drifts on Iron Stone Lad and National Anthem compress this race back to Coloniser's favour. Brian Meehan's 14% yard strike rate is ade…

      Placed — Finished 3rd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      National Anthem

      5/2

      Gosden at 31% in the last 14 days is impossible to ignore for a debut runner; the drift is a caution but the yard form overrides it for a place call.

      Awaiting result
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Iron Stone Lad

      7/4

      The Haggas second on debut has the form to place, but a drift from 3/1 to 7/4 — the model's heaviest single negative — pushes him to third at best.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Youcanbetheone

      11/2

      A third-place debut finish gives Youcanbetheone more form to point to than most here; Quinn's yard at 15% is reasonable and the price has some appeal each-way.

      Nailed it · Finished 4th
  4. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:17

    York · Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Pellitory

      9/2

      Model-topping 6.76 score driven by the field's strongest market move, credible speed score, and positive form — steaming from 16/1 to 9/2 despite a weight penalty is the clearest …

      Missed — Finished 18th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Binhareer

      9/2

      Second in the model at 6.56 with Haggas firing at 19% and Marquand booked; his going score is neutral on soft but the trainer form and market confidence make him the principal dan…

      Placed — Finished 4th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Coul Angel

      11/2

      Fourth in the model with the strongest pure form score among the mid-price runners; a last-run effort at 7/2F shows she's capable of threatening at this level.

      Placed — Finished 1st
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      U Sure Do

      22/1

      Back-to-back wins in form string (698711), goes well on soft, and arrives on a light weight of 9-0 — Easterby's yard at 12% is modest but the horse's own profile is the tell here.

      Missed — Finished 13th
  5. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:40

    York · Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Weffaag

      9/4

      Three-year-old on a progressive form arc, three odds-on starts, Haggas at 19% and Marquand booked. Distance fit confirmed (D:+) on soft ground. The right favourite.

      Missed — Finished 10th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Canvas

      5/1

      Steamed into 5/1 from 20/1 over last three runs; the only named prominent runner gives it a pace advantage. Form finishing 221 is solid but the class rise is a small worry.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Frankies Dream

      15/2

      Candlish yard at 17%, Oisin Orr booked, and a steamer into 15/2 from a most-recent SP of 5/2F — this horse knows how to finish in the frame and the market is with it.

      Missed — Finished 12th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Sailthisshipalone

      12/1

      Form string of 439331 finishing with a win, going fit confirmed (GF:+), Ivan Furtado's yard running at 16% — a 12/1 drifter worth watching for each-way purposes.

      Missed — Finished 5th
  6. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:05

    York · Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Water To Wine

      6/1

      Unbeaten in three, drops a class, Gosden yard at 31% strike rate — the 113-day absence is the only counter-argument, and a hot stable doesn't bring this filly back cold.

      Missed — Finished 16th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Nobody Knows

      6/1

      Form reads 1-13 with two wins at the head of the market; returning from 169 days but Richard Hughes's yard is firing at 17% and this three-year-old has shown a consistent ability …

      Missed — Finished 5th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Shadow Road

      13/2

      Three runs, form 412, beaten just over a length last time at 5/1 — class rise is the flag but a 12lb pull in the weights and David Egan in the saddle makes this each-way live at 1…

      Missed — Finished 12th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Stoneacre Donny

      10/1

      A steamer into 10/1 with distance fit marked plus and going form marked positive — Tim Easterby's yard at 12% is modest but market confidence here is doing real work.

      Awaiting result
  7. Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30

    York · Sky Bet Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race)

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Dubai Champion

      11/2

      Deterministic score of 6.01, distance plus flag, and a form string showing four placed efforts from five runs at six furlongs — cleaner credentials than the steamer Big Cigar whos…

      Missed — Finished 5th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Big Cigar

      11/1

      The strongest market move in the field lifts it to the top of the model ranking, and Fahey's yard is ticking over at 12% — but two consecutive poor runs stop it going to slot 1.

      Missed — Finished 7th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Divine Whisper

      5/1

      Three runs, two wins, consecutive big-price shortening in the SPs suggests rapid improvement; Tom Marquand at 16% is the sharpest jockey booking in the field.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Battle Fever

      9/1

      The 6lb weight drop is the most significant handicap adjustment in the race; consistent form string of 23123 at the trip makes it a credible each-way outsider at 9/1.

      Placed — Finished 3rd
  8. Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:00

    York · Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Magic Boy

      6/1

      Distance positive, going positive, class level, two consecutive market-favourite endorsements from Tinkler's yard, and a closing form figure of 3. Every core filter aligns.

      Missed — Finished 8th
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Quest For Fun

      15/2

      Second in the model on speed and form signals, Tim Easterby's yard running at 14%, and recent form showing a 2 last time. Distance and going negatives keep him off the top.

      Placed — Finished 4th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Kennington

      14/1

      A confirmed steamer, going positive, a youth profile (3yo) with a 3-1 sequence opening his form string, and Hughie Morrison placing him selectively at York.

      Awaiting result
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Son

      11/1

      Fifth in the model on speed, Tim Easterby at 14% yard form, and a significant 19lb weight drop from last run makes him dangerous late in a big field.

      Missed — Finished 14th
  9. Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 16:25

    York · Copper Knight Winning-most Horse Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Toca Madera

      3/1

      Model top-scorer at 6.92, last-run winner, steamering into 3/1, and Tudhope's 18% strike rate holds up. The form string ends in a win at this class level.

      Nailed it · Finished 1st
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Hallo Spaceboy

      7/1

      Also steamering, hold-up style fits the hot-pace scenario perfectly, and distance-plus-going double positive for a three-year-old getting weight from the field.

      Missed — Finished 9th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Go Vince Go

      11/2

      11/2 with Tim Easterby firing at 14% for the yard; the distance is neutral but the class rise is only one level for a three-year-old whose recent form shows a placed run.

      Missed — Finished 13th
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Baldomero

      8/1

      Front-runner facing a pace duel with Parisiac; if Parisiac fades first, Baldomero's class (won at 4/1 last time) could see him cling on for a place in the frame.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
  10. Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 15:50

    York · Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa Nursery Handicap Stakes

    LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.

    Winner placed 2/4 in frame
    1. 🥇
      Predicted 1st

      Instant Force

      11/8

      Four pounds lighter, form of 221 trending upward, the race's most convincing market move. Distance fit confirmed, and the weight drop is the clearest edge in the field.

      Placed — Finished 2nd
    2. 🥈
      Predicted 2nd

      Black Velvet Boy

      7/2

      Form string 731122 is the sharpest in the race and the trip suits, but a four-pound weight rise is a real ask against a horse dropping the same amount.

      Missed — Finished 6th
    3. 🥉
      Predicted 3rd

      Harley

      7/1

      Seven-pound drop in weight, distance and going both suited, and Edward Bethell's yard at 12% is workmanlike — Harley at 7/1 is the each-way price with a tell.

      Nailed it · Finished 3rd
    4. 4
      Predicted 4th

      Furturra

      11/2

      A genuine market mover at 11/2 but form 240535 is too patchy to trust at a class drop into this nursery; place claims only.

      Missed — Finished 7th