Chepstow 20:40 RESULTED
Class 4 21 May 2026

Thursday 21 May David Lucas, Wales Leading Independent Bookmaker Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

David Lucas, Wales Leading Independent Bookmaker Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m2f

Official Result

David Lucas, Wales Leading Independent Bookmaker Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner The Green Mile (IRE) David Probert · Neil Mulholland
    11/1
  2. 8/13F
  3. Third Naples (IRE)
    22/1
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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 month, 3 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Alcaraz silks
Alcaraz
Age 7 · 9-9
17228-
85
88
98
7
9-9
9/2 5/1 4/1
Seven-time winner in France; 0-5 for Tom Dascombe but his second at Newbury (1m2f, good to soft) in September was an eyebrow-raiser, looking all over the winner before being claimed late; considered on this stable debut/reappearance.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Crystal Mariner silks
Crystal Mariner
Age 6 · 9-9
02110-
85
96
95
6
9-9
6/1 11/2 5/1
1-12 on turf; returned to form when second at Doncaster (1m2f, good to soft) in September then went back-to-back at Kempton (1m3f, AW) on next two starts; slowly run series final didn't work out next time; not discounted on this comeback.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
River King silks
River King
Age 4 · 9-11
3231-2
87
70
95
4
9-11
SP 10/11 Evs
Lightly raced 4yo who's been gelded; mark could be lenient on reappearance/handicap debut
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but evn reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Naples silks
Naples
Age 4 · 9-3
021-05
79
68
89
4
9-3
18/1 12/1 18/1
1m heavy-ground maiden winner for Paddy Twomey in Ireland; suffered heavy defeat on stable debut in Doncaster's Spring Mile in March but offered something to work on when fifth of eight in Haydock handicap (about 1m2f, good to firm) last month; unexposed after just six starts.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
The Green Mile silks
The Green Mile
Age 4 · 9-1
37/5-0
77
74
91
4
9-1
12/1 10/1 12/1
Bright start as 2yo in 2024 but then trailed the field in a Group 3 that October and, following an 80,000gns sale, has raced only twice for this yard, beaten 7l in one start last year and again on his comeback at Newbury 33 days ago; encouraging he's now putting a couple of runs together, though, so well worth a market check; hood added.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Robbo silks
Robbo
Age 5 · 8-11
0-0363
73
87
100
5
8-11
11/2 FCST 5/1
Placed in two of his last three starts (1m2f/1m3f, AW) for this yard and he won on good to soft at Goodwood (1m) last June for the Moores; tackles stiffer opposition this time but can't be ruled out.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Alcaraz 9/2 open 7.00 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.00 9/2 Bet365
2 Crystal Mariner 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 11/2 11/2 5/1 open 6.50 6/1 Bet365
2 River King evn open 1.91 11/10 open 1.91 11/10 open 1.91 11/10 open 1.91 11/10 open 1.91 11/10 Coral
4 Naples 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 Bet365
5 The Green Mile 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 Bet365
6 Robbo 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 5/1 11/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Alcaraz

Speculative

Alcaraz owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 George Baker Charles Bishop
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Robbo

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Thomas Faulkner
✓ Value Signal

Naples

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

18/1 · Steph Hollinshead
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Alcaraz
57.7 9/2
2 6. Robbo
56.3 11/2
3 2. Crystal Mariner
55.4 6/1
4 5. The Green Mile
48.7 12/1
5 2. River King
47.5 evn
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Naples
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 7 · 9-9
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 5 · 8-11
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 9-9
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 4 · 9-1
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 9-3
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Naples
Confidence: Medium

Naples leads the field with SR 86 and is trading at . The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-3 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Naples, Robbo, Crystal Mariner, River King, Alcaraz
Each-way: Robbo Danger: Crystal Mariner

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m2f Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Chepstow Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade