Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) · 1m2f0y
SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 71 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 67 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 58 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mehmas Champion | 6/1 open 5.50 | 6/1 open 5.00 | 6/1 open 5.50 | 6/1 open 5.50 | 6/1 open 6.00 | 13/2 open 5.50 | 13/2 Betfred |
| 2 Star Cast | 3/1 open 8.50 | 10/3 open 6.50 | 3/1 open 3.00 | 3/1 open 3.00 | 11/4 open 3.00 | 11/4 open 2.88 | 10/3 Paddy Power |
| 3 Mano Chicago | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 open 12.00 | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Kokanee | 10/1 open 7.00 | 10/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 open 8.50 | 11/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 Coral |
| 5 Krissy | 10/1 open 8.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 9/1 | 9/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Zowal | 12/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 10.00 | 10/1 open 12.00 | 10/1 open 12.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 9/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Tipsy Tiger | 4/1 open 7.00 | 7/2 open 7.00 | 7/2 open 5.50 | 7/2 open 5.50 | 10/3 open 5.50 | 7/2 open 5.50 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Yermanthere | 25/1 open 13.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 17.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Keep An Eye On It | 4/1 open 3.50 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Mehmas Champion owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (43) and market confidence (72). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 71 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 67 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Tipsy Tiger (SR:83, 9/2) is the standout selection on today's heavy going at Ayr. Critically, it is the ONLY horse in the field with a confirmed GoingFit:+ for heavy ground — a decisive edge when the going is this testing at 1m2f. Running off a mark 1lb below its last win (MarkMv:-1), it carries a favourable 9-7 compared to joint-topweights Star Cast and Mehmas Champion on 9-13, a 6lb advantage that is amplified significantly on heavy ground. The market has shortened 8% (Mkt:in8%) confirming money is coming for it, and the trainer William Stone (13% SR) and jockey Shane Gray (14% SR) both carry respectable statistics. The form line 234-64 shows consistency in similar competitive handicaps and the cheekpieces (HG:p) have been retained from last time. Each-way alternative: Star Cast. Main danger: Star Cast — Star Cast (SR:88, 3/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by some margin, carries proven course form (W1P3 at Ayr), has been steaming in the market (Mkt:in16%), drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), and handles 1m2f well (DistFit:+) — the main concern is the unproven heavy-going profile (GoingFit:?) and the 9-13 top-weight burden, but if it handles the ground its class is the most dangerous factor in the race.