Napa struck gold three starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going, giving him solid claims; the worry is that his last two runs have seen him finish seventh and eighth, form he must leave firmly behind.
Form last 64187
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR90RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Harry Knows brings solid recent consistency, finishing third last time out and scoring a winner three starts back, and he has experience of today's trip and going; carrying 135 lb from stall four, he merits respect as the top-rated runner in this field.
Form last 6422133
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR95RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Glamorize has back-to-back wins in her recent form but comes here on the back of a seventh last time out, and 54 days off adds a fitness query; she has run over today's trip and carries 133 lb from stall nine.
Form last 620117
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR87RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lazurite arrives on the back of a win last time out, and with experience of today's trip and going she looks a leading threat at 130 lb from stall seven — the worry is whether that weight will anchor her when it matters most.
Form last 6271
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR90RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Back-to-back wins underpin Not My Type's strong claims here, and she has run over today's trip before; at 129 lb from stall 2, the weight she shoulders is the one factor to keep onside.
Form last 6115
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR87RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Black Velvet Boy arrives on the back of a lively purple patch — a winner two and three starts back and runner-up last time out — and 19 days between runs suggests he returns fresh, though he faces stronger company here and his speed figure of 65 leaves him with something to find.
Form last 673112
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR86RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well below the principals on our figures, Minzelle faces a stiff ask after 82 days off the track, and a sixth last time out does little to encourage, though she has won in her last three starts and has run over today's trip before.
Form last 6316
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR81RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Jaijai landed a win four starts back and posted a second five starts back, so there is recent form to point to, but a 48-day absence and a trainer running at just 5% in the last 14 days are real concerns, even if he has distance and going experience to call on.
Form last 6621204
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR86RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked last on our figures and drawn in stall 10, Beauty Box is hard to fancy on ratings alone, though she has winning form in her last five starts and has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 642181
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR80RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Envision won four starts back but has since struggled, finishing unplaced and eighth in the two runs that followed before a return to fourth last time out; she has experience of today's trip and conditions, though 38 days off and 124 lb are testing factors at a mark of 79.
Form last 641084
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR87RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked tenth of eleven on our figures, Valdoro faces a stiff ask here; third two starts back offers a shred of encouragement, and he has run over today's trip and going before, but 123 lb from stall three makes life no easier.
Form last 6634
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR80RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Black Velvet Boy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/2John & Sean QuinnOisin Murphy
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Lazurite
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · Richard Hughes✓ Value Signal
Napa
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Kevin Philippart de Foy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Lazurite (SR:97, 3/1) is the joint-highest rated runner and is the Richard Hughes yard's #1 — William Buick booked over stablemate Harry Knows who gets Ryan Moore but is drifting 27% to 13/2. Lazurite has won on its most recent run (form 271, rightmost = 1), carries a light 9-4 — 5lb less than Harry Knows and 7lb less than Napa — and has market support (Mkt:in8%) confirming stable confidence despite stepping up in class. The DistFit:+ at this 5f trip and course place (Course:W0P1) on a track that rewards progressive juveniles adds further substance to the case.
Each-way alternative: Black Velvet Boy.
Main danger: Black Velvet Boy — Black Velvet Boy (SR:97, 9/2) matches Lazurite on SR, has been steaming in 23% to 9/2 with Oisin Murphy aboard, and carries a DistFit:+ at 5f — the recent 1-1-2 sequence in his form (73112, rightmost = 2) shows genuine progressive form at this level.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Black Velvet Boy matches Lazurite's SR:97 joint-top rating, is shorter in the weights by 2lb, has been freshened by only 19 days, and is steaming in 23% vs Lazurite's modest 8% move — the market is t…
Lazurite's form reads just '271' — only three career runs, with a '7' (7th) sandwiched before the recent win; limited evidence this is a progressive improver ready to handle a competitive 11-runner 5…
Minzelle (7/2, in 18%) has had 82 days off — a significant freshener — and at 7/2 is actually shorter in the market than Lazurite at 3/1, suggesting bookmakers rate the Burke/Jamin combo a real threa…
Course record is W0P1 — a single placed effort but no course win; at Newmarket's Rowley Mile 5f, which has specific draw and pace biases, proven course winners have a concrete edge Lazurite cannot cl…
ShortlistLazurite, Black Velvet Boy, Minzelle, Harry Knows
Each-way: Black Velvet BoyDanger: Black Velvet Boy