Sailthisshipalone has placed in three of his last four starts, including a third last time out, and he has experience over today's trip and going; drawn in stall one carrying 139 lb, the main risk is 62 days between runs.
Form last 6143933
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR84RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Placed last time out and a winner five starts back, They All Know Me arrives here fresh on just eight days' rest, has experience of today's trip and conditions, and carries 138 lb from stall seven.
Form last 6818042
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR84RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Roaring Ralph has run over today's trip and going, and back-to-back wins five and six starts back show he can find the winner's enclosure; however, consecutive finishes of unplaced, seventh and fifth in his last three runs make this a tougher ask, and 138 lb from stall 10 adds to the challenge.
Form last 6113075
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR75RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Barley won last time out and has experience of today's trip and going, but his official rating of 68 sits well below our assessment of 79, and five unplaced or mid-pack efforts before that win suggest consistency remains a question.
Form last 6324401
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR79RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent in defeat of late, Green Pursuit has placed second last time out and third three starts back, and his experience over today's trip and going stands him in good stead from stall nine carrying 136 lb; the concern is that he remains yet to win in recent starts.
Form last 6-05352
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR87RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts, Upper East does at least have experience over today's trip and arrives reasonably fresh off a 37-day break, though a seventh last time out and a draw of six carrying 136 lb make this a tough ask for a gelding rated 75.
Form last 6467
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR75RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Quiet Resolve is winless in his last six starts, though he shaped with promise when second two starts back, and has run over today's distance and going before; the concern is a below-par effort last time out just six days ago, leaving his current form open to question.
Form last 6264620
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR75RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Returned a fourth last time out after a tough recent spell, but You Sexy Thing does hold a win in his last five starts — that came five runs back — and he has experience over today's trip and going; 133 lb from stall 13 is the main query.
Form last 6130-64
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR77RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Mandarin Spirit nonetheless catches the eye with an our-rating of 84 that sits well clear of her official mark of 72, suggesting she is better than her record implies, and she has run over today's trip and going before; the risk is that consistency has eluded her in recent starts.
Form last 68-6944
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR84RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Starliner arrives in decent nick after finishing second two starts back and winning last time out, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions, but ranked tenth of thirteen on our figures he faces a stiff ask against stronger-rated rivals carrying 130 lb from stall 12.
Form last 6226221
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR72RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked well down our figures, Trinculo is hard to fancy here, though he has placed twice in that spell and has run over today's going before, offering slim positives for a gelding returning after 77 days off.
Form last 68-335
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR70RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Ranked 12 of 13 on our figures and without a win in his last five starts, Mayor of Maghera makes little appeal off 60, though he has run over today's trip and a draw of four at least keeps him out of trouble.
Form last 6176054
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR64RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Penelope's Sister has shown little sign of reversing that trend despite the experience of today's trip and going to call upon, though a run just five days ago at least confirms she is fit and ready.
Form last 6543567
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR62RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Sailthisshipalone owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Ivan FurtadoJason Hart
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
You Sexy Thing
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · Richard Spencer✓ Value Signal
Upper East
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Katie Scott◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Sailthisshipalone (SR:79, 4/1) is the clear SR leader in a weak Class 5 field, and the 23% market inward move is the most significant steaming signal in the race — money is arriving with purpose. The class drop (↓1) and a mark only 1lb above last win (MarkMv:-1) place it in a very winnable position. Jason Hart (14% strike rate, 2,641 career rides) is a strong northern booking, and the tongue-tie/cheekpieces combo suggests connections are targeting this specifically. The DistFit:- is a concern over 1m, but the market's conviction overrides that reservation — if connections had doubts about the trip they would not be backing it this aggressively.
Each-way alternative: Penelope's Sister.
Main danger: Penelope's Sister — Penelope's Sister (SR:59, 9/1) has steamed 24% in the market, carries a featherweight 8-9, is proven on today's going (GoingFit:+), is a course specialist (W3P9 at Ayr), and runs off a mark 10lb lower than her last win — that combination of course form, going preference, and dropped mark makes her a genuine threat despite the SR gap.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:- flags no confirmed form over today's 1m trip — connections adding tongue-tie/cheekpieces may be masking stamina doubt rather than signalling confidence
62-day absence is the longest lay-off in the field; Ivan Furtado's stable runs at only 10% and has just 1,000 career rides, suggesting limited firepower to have a returnee cherry-ripe
Starliner (SR:75, W1P4 at Ayr course) is course-proven, fresh off 8 days, and only marginally below on SR — a serious rival the primary case largely ignores
Penelope's Sister is steaming in 24% with three course wins and 9 places at Ayr; that rival's course dominance plus live market move directly undermines the uniqueness of Sailthisshipalone's inward m…
ShortlistSailthisshipalone, Penelope's Sister, You Sexy Thing, Starliner