Tullybeg is the top-rated runner in this field and shaped with promise when fourth three starts back before winning on the occasion four starts back, giving him a solid recent foundation. He has run over today's trip and going, though his last two runs have disappointed and 45 days off will need to sharpen him up.
Form last 6P1-457
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR127RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and returning after 90 days off, Brandt carries 165 lb on a consistent if frustrating profile of mid-pack finishes, though he does have experience over today's trip and going to call upon.
Form last 60667-6
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
81SR108RPR113OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Rated 122 and ranked second of eleven, Tonaghneave Well boasts solid claims on a going surface he has encountered before, and his third last time out suggests a return to form — though a trainer strike-rate of just 1/36 in the last 14 days is the concern.
Form last 669-893
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
85SR122RPR113OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Tell Us This arrives on the back of a win two starts back and has experience of today's going, making him a genuine threat at 163 lb; the main risk is that he was beaten into fifth last time out, leaving connections needing a swift return to form.
Form last 61-3515
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR109RPR111OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Granville Street arrives here on the back of a third last time out, in decent nick on a 17-day turnaround, and his experience over today's trip combines with a rating of 117 to mark him as a genuine threat at the weights; the concern is that he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 6670-43
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR117RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Juke Hill faces a stiff task from eighth in the rankings, though he has run over today's trip before and 25 days between runs leaves him reasonably fresh; a fourth two starts back offers a crumb of hope, but 156 lb is a hefty burden to carry.
Form last 657-847
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR104RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked tenth of eleven on our figures, Justatan faces a stiff ask here, though he has shown consistency with three thirds in that spell and has run over today's going before.
Form last 6309-33
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR96RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Oneforgonzo has run over today's trip and going, and a win four starts back gives him a form boost, though he has been out of the frame in three of his last four runs; carrying 152 lb, he faces a stiff task from seventh in an eleven-runner field.
Form last 64-1504
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR106RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, That's About Right does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and a rating of 107 suggests more ability than his official mark of 98 implies, though the pulled-up effort in recent form and a hefty 150 lb are real barriers to improvement.
Form last 6P-0484
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR107RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two pulled-up efforts in her last five starts make Nolans Rocco hard to fancy, and a 150-day absence does little to help her case; she has run over today's trip and did score two starts back, but our figures rank her last of eleven.
Form last 64P21P-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR91RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Smallcraftwarning won last time out so arrives in form, and he has experience of today's trip and going, but carrying 149 lb and ranked ninth of eleven on our figures makes him a difficult proposition to support with confidence.
Form last 6204051
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR100RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Smallcraftwarning owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2John Patrick RyanDaniel King
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Tell Us This
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Andrew McNamara✓ Value Signal
Tullybeg
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Brian M McMahon◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tell Us This (SR 105, 5/1, 11-9) is the clear class leader in this field, carrying a manageable weight and boasting a GoingFit:+ on today's Good ground — the only runner with a confirmed positive going preference. The form string 1-3515 shows a win and consistent placing efforts, and at 7 years old the horse is in the prime window for a chaser at this trip. The 5/1 price is fair and the MarkMv:+6 is a modest concern, but the SR advantage of 5+ points over the next best (Justatan at 100) combined with the going suitability makes this the standout selection in what is otherwise a workmanlike field.
Each-way alternative: Justatan.
Main danger: Justatan — Justatan (SR 100, 2/1, 10-13) is the market leader with a 6% inward move, carries the lightest competitive weight, and trainer Emmet Mullins (11% strike rate) with jockey Donagh Meyler (12%) represent the strongest connections combination in the field — the consistent 309-33 form shows a horse placing reliably and capable of improvement.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Justatan (SR:100, 2/1) is drifting in 6% in the market and is 5.5lbs better off at the weights — a well-supported rival at a significantly shorter price undermines Tell Us This's supposed authority.
Smallcraftwarning (SR:100, 7/2) ran only 3 days ago, is clearly race-fit and in form (204051), and carries 11lbs less than Tell Us This — significant weight advantage from a horse with very recent ra…
MarkMv:+6 means Tell Us This is racing off a 6-point higher mark than its last run — the handicapper has reacted, and today's mark may be the highest the horse has ever raced off.
Jockey Conor Stone-Walsh's 6% strike rate (438 rides) is modest, and trainer Andrew McNamara hits just 8% — the combination offers little confidence in converting class advantage into a win.
ShortlistTell Us This, Justatan, Smallcraftwarning, Nolans Rocco