Off the mark on seasonal return at Navan in March (1m2f, heavy); not so good in 1m4f events since, upset in stalls at Cork and made much of running in first-time cheekpieces at Leopardstown before fading; headgear left off now but remains unproven at this trip; drops in grade.
Form last 648-156
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR75RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Didn't count but not beaten far on last month's handicap debut (behind Femme Beauty) at Killarney over slightly shorter; cheekpieces now added so don't rule out.
Form last 6568-7
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR70RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Just okay efforts in two handicaps, not looking to stay 1m4f at Leopardstown and again didn't get home under a positive ride over 1m2f at Down Royal; cheekpieces now added but obvious stamina concerns.
Form last 657454
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR77RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Sioux Nation filly has failed to make an impact in three maidens over shorter; upped markedly in trip for handicap debut and can't be ruled out (dam won over this trip).
Form last 6075
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR60RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Recent 1m3f Killarney handicap (first-time visor) third to Femme Beauty a definite step in the right direction; one to consider from a yard hitting form.
Form last 628-773
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR71RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Eye-catching handicap debut at Down Royal last month when strong-finishing third third (Chestnut Palace 2.75l away fourth) over 1m2f, still looking green; longer trip seems sure to suit and cheekpieces added; big player.
Form last 68053
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR70RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Got a good ride from the front on speed-favouring track when winning over 1m3f at Killarney last month; didn't seem to get home over 1m4f at Roscommon six days later; 10lb claimer back aboard here.
Form last 6937414
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR72RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Never competitive in three maidens over 1m; half-sister to 1m2f AW winner and is out of a Nathaniel mare, so good chance this trip will suit; market has to be watched on handicap debut.
Form last 677-7
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR64RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
Navan fourth (to Servare) on handicap debut was a step in the right direction but never sighted at Killarney behind Femme Beauty; handicapper relenting but more needed and cheekpieces tried.
Form last 600-040
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR73RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .
First reserve; winning handicap debut (1m) at Dundalk in March but safely held twice afterwards at same track; marked step up in trip for turf return and others preferred.
Form last 609-177
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
44SR74RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lord Aus owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (24) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3J P MurtaghBen Coen
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Amethyst Stone
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · G M Lyons✓ Value Signal
Royal Sapphire
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Lord Aus (SR 44, 10/3) is the clear market leader in a field where the SR range is tight (38-51) and no horse is remotely near the competitive handicap benchmark — making market confidence and trajectory the key differentiators. His recent form of 8053 shows a third-place finish last time out, indicating he is moving in the right direction, and the market at 10/3 — significantly shorter than the rest of the field — signals strong handler and market confidence. He carries 9-7, a reasonable weight in this 19-runner field, giving him a 7lb pull on top-weight Servare (SR 50, 10-0) despite Servare holding the narrow SR lead. At 1m3f210y on Good ground, the trip is a genuine test that suits a staying-type 3yo, and the Murtagh yard (also saddling Leeward) clearly fancies this one over the stable companion.
Each-way alternative: Femme Beauty.
Main danger: Femme Beauty — Femme Beauty (SR 51 — the highest in the field, 7/1, 9-5) has the strongest Saturday Rating and a recent form string of 937414 that includes consecutive placed and winning efforts, meaning if she brings peak form to this trip she has the ability to dominate.
ShortlistLord Aus, Femme Beauty, Amethyst Stone, Servare