← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
William Hill Challenge Series Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Caher Roes Den
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Caher Roes Den (SR 100, 5/2) is trained by W.P. Mullins (26% strike rate, 2,966 runners) and ridden by Paul Townend (38% strike rate, 905 runners) — the strongest connections combination in the field by a considerable margin. The form string 9P/413 shows a recent third and then a win, indicating upward trajectory, and while the distance and going are question marks (?), the Mullins/Townend combination at this level rarely turns up without confidence. The 5/2 market position is the shortest price in the field and has not drifted, suggesting stable confidence from connections who know exactly what they have on a chase debut. Chase The Moon (SR 110, 11/2) has the highest SR and a striking 38% market steam, but 204 days off with a '9-' tail to the form and a low-grade trainer (7% strike rate) makes the Mullins runner the more reliable vehicle. Each-way alternative: Chase The Moon. Main danger: Kir — Kir (SR 98, 5/1) has steamed 34% in the market for Henry de Bromhead (16% strike rate) and while the form tail shows a '9-', the strong market move and competent handler suggest a horse that may have found its feet over fences.
Full result
Winner: Pat's Legacy (IRE) at SP 20/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pat's Legacy 16/1
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2
Kir Fox #3 5/1
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3
Kelya 20/1
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4
Long Branch 7/1
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5
Caher Roes Den Fox #1 2/1
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6
Lisnagar Fortune 40/1
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7
Chase The Moon Fox #2 5/1
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8
King In Love 33/1
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9
Mullaghgloss 10/1
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Arcland 20/1
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Hesasmoothoperator 66/1
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Maverick Mack 22/1
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No Looking Back 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Caher Roes Den 5/2 5TH
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2
Chase The Moon 11/2 7TH
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3
Kir 5/1 🥈 2ND