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17:30 Dundalk (AW) Fri 16 Oct 2026 6f Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Firewalker

SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 SP 15/8F Est. 29%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Firewalker (SR:81, 3/1) is the most compelling case here on a convergence of signals: a 16% market move in (the sharpest steam in the field), proven on today's going (GoingFit:+), and the moderate distance fit (DistFit:~) is not a red flag at 6f given the recent form includes a placed effort. The trainer Robson De Aguiar at 12% strike rate is decent for the level and the Donagh O'Connor booking is workmanlike. Monmouth is the morning-line favourite at 5/2 but has drifted 13%, carries blinkers first-time which add unpredictability, and has an unknown going record (GoingFit:?) — three specific negatives against the market leader. Otsana holds the standout SR (154) and would be a clear class edge, but has drifted 12%, is unproven at this trip and on this going (both DistFit:? and GoingFit:?), and a 42-day absence adds risk — the market is clearly not convinced. Each-way alternative: Otsana. Main danger: Otsana — Otsana's SR of 154 is dramatically higher than any rival in this field — if the tongue-tie and the step up in class confidence clicks into place, that raw ability advantage could simply overpower everything else regardless of the unproven trip and going.

Verify· #23741

Full result

Winner: Firewalker (GB) at SP 15/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Firewalker Fox #1 Robson De Aguiar · Donagh O'Connor 2/1
2 Monmouth Fox #3 Aidan O'Brien · W. M. Lordan 5/2
3 Otsana Fox #2 P. Twomey · W. J. Lee 4/1
4 Emiza D K Weld · Chris Hayes 8/1
5 Dusty Rock Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Julian Pietropaolo(7) 16/1
6 Blessed By Faith Daniel James Murphy · Terry Casey(7) 125/1
7 Rosanella Josh Halley · Andrew Slattery 200/1
8 Cape Blue Point Denis Gerard Hogan · Shane Foley 50/1
9 Palmeira Denis Gerard Hogan · Colin Keane 6/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Firewalker 3/1 SP 15/8F 🏆 WON
2 Otsana 7/2 🥉 3RD
3 Monmouth 5/2 🥈 2ND