← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sam Hall Memorial Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Castan
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 21%
Mr Fox says
Castan (SR:72, 9/2) has steamed in by 55% — the most aggressive market move in the race — which is a strong signal that connections are confident. He carries 9-9 but has a 4lb drop in mark since last win (MarkMv:-4), giving him a handicap edge, and his GoingFit:~ on good ground is adequate. Trainer Bryan Smart (13% strike rate, 599 runners) and jockey Paul Mulrennan (14%, 2464 runners) is a reliable booking for a yard that knows when they have a live one. The form string 096389 shows inconsistency but the market money — 55% in — argues strongly that today's conditions suit. Each-way alternative: Houndhill. Main danger: Hanney Girl — Hanney Girl (SR:74, 7/2, Mkt:in14%) matches Houndhill for SR rating, has steamed in 14%, and drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) — the combination of market support and easier company makes her a genuine threat to take this.
Full result
Winner: Sergeant Mayer (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sergeant Mayer Fox #4 5/1
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2
Castan Fox #1 5/1
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3
Hanney Girl Fox #2 7/2
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4
Wrestling Revenue 8/1
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5
North West Gal 28/1
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6
Dragon Spin 14/1
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7
Emperor's Son 15/2
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8
Tees Aggregates 9/1
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9
Houndhill Fox #3 9/2
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10
Moira Express 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3
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4