← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Sonbelievable
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 23%
Mr Fox says
Sonbelievable (SR:56, 7/2, Wgt:9-7) has been steamed in 35% from its opening price — the most emphatic market move in the field by some distance — suggesting strong stable confidence after 90 days off. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) into a Class 6 heat is a significant advantage, and at 3 years old there is scope for improvement that older rivals in this basement race lack. Luke Morris (12% career strike rate, 3,082 runners — a seasoned operator) is a positive booking for a Joseph Parr yard (12%, 413 runners) that sends runners out fit to win. The DistFit:- is noted — this trip is unproven — but GoingFit:? rather than GoingFit:- means there is no confirmed aversion to Good ground, and in a field where every runner carries a DistFit:-, it is not a differentiating weakness. Each-way alternative: Distillate. Main danger: Distillate — Distillate (SR:59, 4/1, Wgt:9-2) shares the joint-highest SR in the field, carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders, drops two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) and has had its mark cut by 6lb (MarkMv:-6), making it potentially well-treated on a line through its best form despite the messy recent record of 0B0388.
Full result
Winner: Distillate (GB) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Distillate Fox #2 11/4
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2
Based Fox #3 9/2
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3
Sonbelievable Fox #1 7/2
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4
Mickey Mongoose 8/1
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5
Men of Honour Fox #4 7/1
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6
Megaphone 12/1
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7
Edergole's Gift 11/1
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8
Auradue 18/1
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9
My Prerogative 22/1
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10
Pink Socks 66/1
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11
Gloriola 25/1
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—
Vitalline 9/1
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—
Neat And Tidy 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Sonbelievable 7/2 🥉 3RD
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2
Distillate 4/1 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Based 7/2 🥈 2ND
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4
Men of Honour 15/2 5TH