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Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice Steeplechase (Grade 3)

15:55 Punchestown Wed 14 Oct 2026 2m2f75y Class 1 Good 5 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Bunting silks

Bunting

MEDIUM Advised 11/8 Est. 38%

Mr Fox says

Bunting (SR 157, 11/8) is the market leader for good reason: Paul Townend books at 38% career strike rate — the sharpest jockey stat in this field — and the Mullins yard hits at 26% with nearly 3,000 runners, the strongest connections combination here. The market has sharpened 8% since opening, confirming stable confidence. While DistFit:? and GoingFit:? indicate an unproven trip and going, this is a five-runner novice chase at Grade 3 level where the SR of 157 is second only to Vitorio Piel, and the form-string 996-61 shows a sharp recent win after indifferent earlier efforts — exactly the kind of improver trajectory Mullins/Townend exploit. Vitorio Piel's 168-day absence is the key concern for the main rival, and Bunting's sharper fitness makes it the likeliest winner. Each-way alternative: Vitorio Piel. Main danger: Vitorio Piel — Vitorio Piel holds the field's highest SR at 163, has course form (W1P3 at Punchestown) and has been heavily supported (Mkt:in35%), but 168 days off the track in a novice chase is a meaningful fitness question — if he returns fresh and ready, he is the most talented horse in the race.

Verify· #23356

Full result

Winner: Chanceawetmorning (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Chanceawetmorning silks Chanceawetmorning Gordon Elliott · Jack Kennedy 9/2
  2. 2 Sir Allen silks Sir Allen Fox #3 A. Slattery · Cian Quirke 17/2
  3. 3 Vitorio Piel silks Vitorio Piel Fox #2 Emmet Mullins · Donagh Meyler 3/1
  4. — Bunting silks Bunting Fox #1 W. P. Mullins · Paul Townend 5/6
  5. — Miss Fourie silks Miss Fourie Gordon Elliott · Danny Gilligan 25/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Bunting silks Bunting 11/8
  2. 2 Vitorio Piel silks Vitorio Piel 5/2 🥉 3RD
  3. 3 Sir Allen silks Sir Allen 11/2 🥈 2ND