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Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Lunar Stride
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 SP 5/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Lunar Stride (SR 154, 2/1) carries the highest Saturday Rating in the field and is sent off favourite by a meaningful margin. With all runners on a blank form slate (maiden hurdles), SR becomes the primary differentiator, and at 154 Lunar Stride has a clear edge over Green Heritage (153), Rich Treasure (149), and Hansel The Purse (148). Gavin Cromwell's yard (11% strike rate, 3224 career runners) is the most substantial training operation represented here, giving confidence that this horse is ready to run to its rating. Green Heritage (SR 153, 9/4) is the chief market rival but has drifted 11% — more than any other runner — which undermines its claim as the second-best on ratings; a tongue-tie first time on debut over hurdles adds uncertainty rather than confidence. Lunar Stride's price implies roughly 31% raw chance, adjusted to 28% after overround and with no market drift to worry about. Each-way alternative: Rich Treasure. Main danger: Green Heritage — Green Heritage (SR 153, 9/4) holds the second-highest rating in the field and is ridden by J J Slevin (13% career strike rate, 1134 runners) — the strongest jockey booking on the card — and if the tongue-tie has a sharpening effect on debut over hurdles, it could outrun its drifting price.
Full result
Winner: Lunar Stride (IRE) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lunar Stride Fox #1 15/8
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2
Juarileo 16/1
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3
Green Heritage Fox #2 15/8
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4
Hansel The Purse Fox #4 15/2
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5
Rich Treasure Fox #3 5/1
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6
Way Horn 12/1
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Dublinia 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4