← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Colwick Cup Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Believitanducan
SPECULATIVE Advised SP Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Believitanducan (SR:69, Wgt:10-4) is the clear SR leader in a field where the next-best horses are clustered between SR 62-64 — a meaningful gap at this class level. Despite carrying top weight and running off a mark 10lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+10), the horse is proven at 2m and on good-to-soft (DistFit:+, GoingFit:+), which are two of the most important filters on a 2m handicap in October. The market has backed it in 14% since opening, and William Buick (25% strike rate, 1,525 career runners) is a significant booking for a Class 4 Nottingham handicap — connections clearly believe. The recent form string 1-1-1-1-3 (reading right to left: third last time, three consecutive wins before that) confirms a horse in peak form carrying a penalty it has earned. Each-way alternative: Dunkeld Dreamer. Main danger: Green Falcon — Green Falcon (SR:59, Wgt:8-9) carries the lowest weight in the field and has been backed in 43% since opening — the strongest market support of any runner — with David Menuisier's yard capable of placing horses quietly when fresh off a 23-day break, and the light weight gives it a real racing chance if the trip is within reach.
Full result
Winner: Green Falcon (GB) at SP 5/2J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Green Falcon Fox #3 3/1
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2
Believitanducan Fox #1 5/2
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3
Dunkeld Dreamer Fox #2 8/1
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4
Personal Best 5/1
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5
Neptunes Staircase 12/1
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6
Rock N Roll Pinkie 15/2
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7
It's All About You 50/1
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8
Call My Bluff 66/1
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9
Zimmerman 22/1
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10
Trojan Sun 9/1
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Sharp Move -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Believitanducan SP 🥈 2ND
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2
Dunkeld Dreamer SP 🥉 3RD
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3
Green Falcon SP SP 5/2J 🏆 WON