← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Gatehouse Boy
SPECULATIVE Advised 14/1 Est. 8%
Mr Fox says
Gatehouse Boy (SR:75, 14/1) is the standout market mover in the field — a 38% inward move is the single most aggressive steaming signal across all 18 runners and represents meaningful market confidence in a wide-open €6,000 heat. Carrying 11-12 is a concern, but his SR of 75 is competitive relative to the field's general mediocrity, and the MarkMv:+6 is modest enough not to be punitive. With DistFit:? and GoingFit:? he's unproven at the trip and going, but the money arriving at 14/1 is buying into something the data doesn't fully show — that's worth following when no rival presents a clearly superior case. P J Rothwell's 8% strike rate is workmanlike, but the 38% market move into 14/1 outweighs that caution. Each-way alternative: No Big Deal. Main danger: No Big Deal — No Big Deal (SR:86, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by some margin, carries Mark Walsh — the field's top jockey at 21% career strike rate — and at 7/2 holds favouritism, meaning the market already makes it the most likely winner despite GoingFit:- being a genuine caveat.
Full result
Winner: Tuckmill (IRE) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tuckmill 12/1
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2
Trixaboutmaisie 22/1
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3
King Of The Greys 10/1
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4
How Decc 66/1
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5
G N Jefferson 15/2
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6
Soldier Saint Fox #3 7/2
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7
The Border Boy 25/1
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8
Hidalgo Des Mottes 18/1
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9
No Big Deal Fox #2 4/1
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10
Leo Messy Fox #4 6/1
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11
Gatehouse Boy Fox #1 16/1
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12
Mount Hotham 33/1
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13
Las Brisas Boy 7/1
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Bearami Creek 28/1
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You Done Well 14/1
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Datzdjazz 50/1
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Dunany Point 16/1
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Me Wee Nanny Fran 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Gatehouse Boy 14/1 11TH
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2
No Big Deal 7/2 9TH
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3
Soldier Saint 5/1 6TH
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4
Leo Messy 13/2 10TH