← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Shape Engineering Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Born This Way
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 SP 11/8F Est. 31%
Mr Fox says
Born This Way (SR 154, 2/1) is the market favourite in a field of predominantly debutants, trained by William Haggas (23% strike rate from 2,121 runners — one of the sharpest juvenile yards in Britain) and ridden by Tom Marquand (16%, 2,575 runners). The 5% drift is modest and does not constitute a hard negative — it is well within normal market noise, especially compared to the 40% drift on Pigou and 16% on Fort McHenry. Against Amandari, the challenge process found no hard negative on Born This Way's runner line, and the 12% market move on Amandari — while positive — is insufficient in a novice of debutants to override a shorter price, a superior trainer strike rate, and the track record of the Haggas yard at this level. Each-way alternative: Solo Quest. Main danger: Amandari — Amandari (SR 155, 9/4) holds the field's highest SR, is backed 12% in, and the Gosden yard has a 24% strike rate — if Havlin has a positive gallop report this is a very live danger.
Full result
Winner: Born This Way (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Born This Way Fox #1 13/8
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2
Solo Quest Fox #3 9/2
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3
Olympiacos 14/1
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4
Pigou 12/1
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5
Amandari Fox #2 5/2
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6
Fort Mchenry 8/1
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7
Stellar Max 80/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3