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Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap Stakes

17:00 Newcastle (AW) Mon 12 Oct 2026 1m5y Class 5 Good 11 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Maria da Silva silks

Maria da Silva

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 30%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Maria da Silva (SR:85, 11/4) is the clear SR leader in this field by a significant margin over the next-best, carries 9-11 which is manageable, and brings a course record of W2P2 at Newcastle AW — a specialist track advantage that matters. Both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm she handles today's mile on good AW ground, and the market has steamed 25% since opening, signalling informed money. Form string 6-1144 shows she was winning readily before a couple of modest runs, but the class hasn't moved (ClassMv:=) and the MarkMv:+3 is a small rise she can absorb given the SR edge she holds over every rival. Each-way alternative: Second Fiddle. Main danger: Sailor's Return — Sailor's Return (SR:74, 7/2) carries the second-highest SR in the field with Daniel Tudhope booked (18% strike rate), though the drift of 24%, DistFit:-, GoingFit:-, and a ClassMv:↑1 with MarkMv:+5 all point against it — if those concerns prove overstated on the day, its raw ability makes it the most likely one to trouble the selection.

Verify· #23046

Full result

Winner: Carmel Valley (IRE) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Carmel Valley silks Carmel Valley Katie Scott · Jason Hart 14/1
  2. 2 Bay Dream Believer silks Bay Dream Believer Mark Walford · Saffie Osborne 50/1
  3. 3 Goomah silks Goomah John Butler · M. P. Sheehy 11/2
  4. 4 Second Fiddle silks Second Fiddle Fox #3 Iain Jardine · Andrew Mullen 4/1
  5. 5 Maria da Silva silks Maria da Silva Fox #1 Andrew Balding · P. J. McDonald 9/4
  6. 6 Sailor's Return silks Sailor's Return Fox #2 David O'Meara · Daniel Tudhope 3/1
  7. 7 Espanita silks Espanita Charlie Johnston · Oliver Stammers 9/1
  8. 8 Amber Hamur silks Amber Hamur Edward Bethell · Cian Horgan(5) 22/1
  9. 9 Silky Lass silks Silky Lass Joey Ramsden · Alex Jary(3) 50/1
  10. 10 Sassy Glory silks Sassy Glory Mark Walford · Rhys Elliott(5) 22/1
  11. 11 Leelawadee silks Leelawadee Michael Dods · Connor Beasley 66/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Maria da Silva silks Maria da Silva 11/4 5TH
  2. 2 Sailor's Return silks Sailor's Return 7/2 6TH
  3. 3 Second Fiddle silks Second Fiddle 5/1 🏁 4TH