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Mr Fox’s call
Motawaared
MEDIUM Advised 6/5 Est. 44%
Mr Fox says
Motawaared (SR 82, 6/5) is the clear class leader in this field — 10 SR points clear of the next-best Ephron (SR 72) — and his form string of 222521 shows consistent competitiveness culminating in a win last time out. He runs off a mark only 2lb higher than that win (MarkMv:+2), carries a favourable 10-8 with the lightest competitive weight in the field, and has three places at Musselburgh (Course:W0P3) confirming course affinity. The GoingFit:- flag is the one genuine concern on good to soft, but only 4 days ago he ran, indicating connections are not worried about conditions, and his SR dominance over rivals is substantial enough to absorb a ground query. Jim Goldie's 14% strike rate with 2,075 runners is a reliable yard, and the price at 6/5 is fair for a horse with this SR advantage and course familiarity. Each-way alternative: Ephron. Main danger: Ephron — Ephron (SR 72, 13/2) has a form line ending in 7 then 6 then a winning 1 at this class, has been gently backed (Mkt:in6%), and jockey Miss Amy Collier carries an 18% strike rate from 40 rides — the strongest jockey strike rate in the field — giving her the best chance of any rival to peg back the favourite.
Full result
Winner: Ibn Altheeb (IRE) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ibn Altheeb 33/1
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2
Filly Eilish 14/1
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3
Motawaared Fox #1 evn
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4
Star Start 14/1
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5
Tee Aitch Aye Fox #3 6/1
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6
Pride of Nepal 10/1
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7
Mudita 7/1
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8
Lone Piper 33/1
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—
Ephron Fox #2 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Motawaared 6/5 🥉 3RD
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2
Ephron 13/2
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3
Tee Aitch Aye 13/2 5TH