← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Dad Sez
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Dad Sez (SR:130, 5/2) leads the field on ability and carries the same weight as Hi Ho Idaho (SR:129) at 11-10, so there is no meaningful weight penalty to overcome. The critical signal here is the Mkt:in19% move — a 19% market compression in a four-runner novice hurdle is significant and suggests stable confidence from the Gordon Elliott yard, one of the premier National Hunt operations. Elliott's 18% strike rate across 4,069 runners is the strongest training record in this field by some distance. The form figure '2' last time out is solid for a novice at this level, and the unseating (U) earlier in the sequence is a single incident rather than a pattern of jumping problems. Each-way alternative: Hi Ho Idaho. Main danger: Hi Ho Idaho — Hi Ho Idaho (SR:129, 10/3) has also been supported in the market (Mkt:in10%) and the tongue-tie application (HG:t) suggests connections believe there is more to come from this horse, making it a live each-way threat if Dad Sez fails to settle over the stamina-testing 3m trip.
Full result
Winner: Minella Emperor (IRE) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Minella Emperor Fox #3 6/5
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2
Siege Of Carthage 7/1
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3
Dad Sez Fox #1 11/10
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Hi Ho Idaho Fox #2 10/3
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3