← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Nursery Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Wise And Wonderful
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Wise And Wonderful (SR:83, 5/1) ties for the highest SR in the field alongside Zarak Crown but carries 4lb less at 9-5 versus 9-9, a meaningful weight edge in a Class 4 nursery on Good to Soft ground. Critically, the market has shortened 8% — money coming for a horse trained by Andrew Balding (18% strike rate, 3091 runners) and ridden by Oisin Murphy (22% strike rate, 2760 runners), the two strongest connections in the race by both volume and strike rate. The drop of two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) is the most significant class relief in the field and explains why this horse is well-treated at a mark 3lb above last win — easier company should allow those pounds to be absorbed. The form 421020 shows inconsistency but the last figure (0) in unfavourable circumstances may not represent the horse's ceiling; the class drop into softer opposition is the key catalyst. Each-way alternative: Isabella de Vega. Main danger: Zarak Crown — Zarak Crown matches Wise And Wonderful on SR:83, is the market leader at 9/4 with James Doyle booked (21% strike rate), and the drop in class (↓1) alongside recent form of 41 suggests a horse returning to form — the weight burden of 9-9 is the only real concern separating it from the selection.
Full result
Winner: Lots Road (IRE) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lots Road Fox #4 9/2
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2
Under Arrest 7/1
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3
Wise And Wonderful Fox #1 13/2
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4
Zarak Crown Fox #2 15/8
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5
Cloud Chorus 7/1
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6
Persian Land 33/1
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7
Cashinoroyale 16/1
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8
Isabella de Vega Fox #3 11/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4