← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Wasdell Group Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Onetingfornuttin
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Onetingfornuttin (SR:106, 5/2) edges out Old Coast Road as the pick on a combination of SR-leadership and meaningful market support — a 13% market contraction since opening is the clearest information signal in a field where almost every other runner has drifted. James Bowen (20% strike rate, 1211 career rides) and trainer Mickey Bowen (16%, 521 runners) are a competent combination in bumpers. At 4 years old it carries the same weight as the other 4-year-olds (10-13) versus Old Coast Road's 11-0, giving it a 1lb weight advantage over the favourite despite essentially matching it on SR. Old Coast Road (SR:105, 7/4) is narrowly behind on both SR and weight and has drifted 7% — not catastrophic, but the money is not flowing its way today. Each-way alternative: Too Many Acres. Main danger: Too Many Acres — Paul Nicholls (22% strike rate, 560 runners) is one of the strongest bumper trainers in the country and Too Many Acres at 2/1 — carrying the same weight as Onetingfornuttin — has an SR of 101 that, while below the top two, is backed by an elite yard that consistently produces bumper winners from unexposed stock.
Full result
Winner: Masked Blagny (FR) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Masked Blagny 15/2
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2
Old Coast Road Fox #3 9/4
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3
Onetingfornuttin Fox #1 13/8
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4
Too Many Acres Fox #2 11/4
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5
Motivaspeed Essef 66/1
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6
Roxy Rocks 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3