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Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Eightthreeone
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Eightthreeone (SR 70, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and arrives on the back of a last-time-out win (form reads 654431, rightmost digit = 1), carrying just 9-10 — a 2lb advantage over top-weight Willolarupi. The GoingFit:+ confirms it handles good ground, and Course:W1P1 shows it gets around Southwell. Running off the same mark as its last win (MarkMv:=) means the handicapper has not penalised it yet, and a five-day turnaround from a yard striking at 13% (Eve Johnson Houghton) signals the stable is happy to run quickly while the horse is in form. The 11/4 market price is fair and has not drifted, consistent with quiet confidence. Each-way alternative: Riley Rocks. Main danger: Riley Rocks — Riley Rocks (SR 67, 4/1) has steamed in 35% in the market, carries 9-11 from a drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) and is off a mark 10lb below its last win (MarkMv:-10), which makes it dangerously well-handicapped if the recent poor form (040460) is at least partly explained by the higher class it was competing in.
Full result
Winner: Riley Rocks (GB) at SP 11/4J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Riley Rocks Fox #2 3/1
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2
Eightthreeone Fox #1 11/4
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3
Jesse Luc 6/1
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4
Cool Doc Boy 25/1
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5
Toptime 15/2
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6
Hares Bredth 9/1
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7
Top Lad 66/1
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8
Willolarupi Fox #3 7/2
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Coast 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3