Erdinger Weissbier Stein Selling Handicap Stakes

16:45 Southwell (AW) Sat 10 Oct 2026 1m13y Class 5 Good 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

R P McMurphy

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 28%

8TH

Mr Fox says

R P McMurphy (SR:81, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in this field and carries a relatively light 9-4 despite that SR advantage, giving him a real lbs edge over rivals. His GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ confirm he handles today's exact conditions, and Course:W0P5 shows he consistently fires at Southwell without winning — the 2 last time out (form 803412) suggests he's peaking at the right moment. The market has shortened 31% since opening, which is a powerful steaming signal in a Class 5 seller that the stable — Michael Appleby at 13% strike rate with Edward Greatrex (14%, 936 runners) up — is confident. The MarkMv:+7 is a concern on paper, but the weight (9-4) and going/distance fit more than compensate. Each-way alternative: Calm The Jets. Main danger: Calm The Jets — Calm The Jets (SR:78, 7/2) has steamed in 37% from opening — the joint-strongest market move in the field — carries only 9-6 with DistFit:+ confirmed, and though GoingFit:? is a flag, the money suggests connections have strong confidence in him bouncing back from a modest recent run.

Verify· #22687

Full result

Winner: Izzari (GER) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.