← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Rock Montreal
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/10 SP 11/8F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Rock Montreal (SR 112, 11/10) holds the second-highest SR in the field and is trained by Roger Varian — a yard running at 20% career strike rate — with William Buick booked, himself operating at 25%. The market has shortened 17% since opening, which is meaningful Ante-Post confidence for a 2yo at Group 3 level, and the form of 1-2 shows a debut win followed by a runner-up, suggesting a progressive type on an upward trajectory. While DistFit and GoingFit are both unproven (?), this is the same position as most rivals in a lightly-raced juvenile field, so the advantage is nullified. The key edge over Sergei Diaghilev (SR 120) is the market: Diaghilev has drifted 8% from opening while Rock Montreal has steamed in 17%, suggesting handlers and informed money are siding with Varian's runner despite the SR gap. Each-way alternative: Al Jabbar. Main danger: Sergei Diaghilev — Sergei Diaghilev holds the highest SR in the field at 120 with Ryan Moore booked and a proven GoingFit on Good ground, and while the 8% market drift is a concern it may simply reflect O'Brien's vast team rather than any negative stable signal — if the drift is noise rather than information, his superior SR makes him the most likely winner.
Full result
Winner: Rock Montreal (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Rock Montreal Fox #1 11/10
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2
Sergei Diaghilev Fox #2 11/4
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3
Al Jabbar Fox #3 6/1
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4
Notable Dream 10/1
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5
Sole Ambition 14/1
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6
Clash of Hearts 125/1
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7
Mia Fantasia Fox #4 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4