← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Hitz Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Dark Tide Rising
SPECULATIVE Advised 1/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Dark Tide Rising (SR:160, 1/1) is the standout on ability — a 29-point SR gap over the next best (Get On Son, SR:142) is substantial and reflects a clear class edge in this novice field. The horse is proven at both today's distance (DistFit:+) and on good going (GoingFit:+), the only runner in the field to confirm both positives, and holds course form (W0P1 at Hexham). Tom George's 18% career strike rate from 120 runners is the strongest in the field and the trainer regularly targets these qualifier series with prepared horses. The market drift of 14% from opening is a minor concern — likely reflect recency (only 8 days since last run) and a fall in the form string (F-4312) — but the recent sequence of 1-2 finishes either side of that fall shows the horse returning in fine fettle, and the 1lb weight concession to the field is trivial. Each-way alternative: Get On Son. Main danger: Get On Son — Get On Son (SR:142, 11/1) has steamed in 35% since opening — the strongest market move in the field — suggesting connections and/or informed money believe a one-run form line of '0-' drastically undersells this horse's ability, and at 11/1 the value is real if that confidence is justified.
Full result
Winner: Hourman (FR) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Hourman Fox #3 5/2
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2
Circle of Steel 28/1
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3
Dark Tide Rising Fox #1 evn
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4
Bogha Baiste 3/1
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5
Argentum 80/1
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6
Get On Son Fox #2 12/1
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7
Mhordart 66/1
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8
Happy Harrison 80/1
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—
Rock Armour 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Dark Tide Rising 1/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Get On Son 11/1 6TH
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3
Hourman 10/3 SP 3/1 🏆 WON