← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
William Hill Finale Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Harper Violet
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 SP 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Harper Violet (SR 90, 11/2) has shortened 30% in the market — the strongest steam among the credible SR-range contenders — and arrives on a 3-4-1 form line that shows a last-time-out win. Carrying 9-0, she has a clear weight edge over Tierra Del Toro (9-9) and Glory Road (9-6) while posting a comparable SR. The K.R. Burke yard runs at a 20% career strike rate with Clifford Lee at 17%, and the step up one class is a risk mitigated by the fact the market is actively backing her into this. The principal uncertainty is both DistFit and GoingFit are unproven (?), but with no negative flags and a 30% market move this morning, the money is doing the talking. Each-way alternative: Gaspacho. Main danger: Gaspacho — Gaspacho (SR 93, 4/1) carries the joint-highest SR in the field, has shortened 31% in the market, is trained by William Haggas (23% career strike rate — the best trainer stat in this field), and while the +10 mark rise and a step up two classes are concerns, the raw ability and market confidence make it the most credible threat to Harper Violet.
Full result
Winner: Harper Violet (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Harper Violet Fox #1 5/1
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2
Bridge of Eagles 17/2
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3
Gaspacho Fox #2 9/2
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4
Itica 12/1
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5
Glory Road 4/1
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6
Mythical Bay 12/1
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7
Tierra Del Toro Fox #4 3/1
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8
Baltic Fleet 12/1
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9
Prince of Calypso 28/1
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—
Bintknight Fox #3 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Harper Violet 11/2 SP 9/2 🏆 WON
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2
Gaspacho 4/1 🥉 3RD
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3
Bintknight 15/2
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4
Tierra Del Toro 3/1 7TH