← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ardmore Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Tingarran Express
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 27%
Mr Fox says
Tingarran Express (SR 90, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by 2lb over Lanzhou (SR 88) and carries top-weight of 12-0, but the SR edge justifies it. The decisive factor is course form: W1P4 at Tramore is exceptional specialist record in a field where most rivals have none or negative course form. GoingFit:~ confirms reasonable handles on Good ground. The 29% market drift is a concern, but the trainer's 8% strike rate from a small yard and 55 days' freshness are not alarming, and the form string 4-6293 shows a place last time — there is recency of competitive effort. No other runner in the field combines SR leadership, proven course form, and a distance record that isn't outright poor (DistFit:~ vs a field full of DistFit:-). Each-way alternative: Lanzhou. Main danger: Lanzhou — Lanzhou (SR 88, 2/1) is the market leader, 6lb lighter than Tingarran Express at 11-6, with a progressive profile as a 5-year-old and jockey Daniel King's solid 10% career strike rate — the weight concession alone could offset the SR gap on Good ground.
Full result
Winner: Lanzhou (FR) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lanzhou Fox #2 15/8
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2
Polly Poppins Fox #4 4/1
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3
Tasmanian Girl 15/2
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4
Ahellofaman Fox #3 5/1
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5
Tingarran Express Fox #1 13/2
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6
Goodmancon 22/1
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7
Million Dollar Man 7/1
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—
Fenian Maxios 33/1
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Breeze Of Tobruk 80/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Tingarran Express 9/2 5TH
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2
Lanzhou 2/1 SP 9/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Ahellofaman 5/1 🏁 4TH
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4
Polly Poppins 11/2 🥈 2ND