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20:30 Southwell (AW) Thu 08 Oct 2026 7f14y Class 4 Good 12 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Nostrum silks

Nostrum

SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 32%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Nostrum (SR 90, 13/8) is the class standout in this field by a meaningful margin — 7 SR points clear of the next-best BillyB and Not That Guy (both SR 83) — and carries 10-3 which, while the joint-top weight, is justified by that ability advantage. The market is emphatic: a 15% inward move to 13/8 reflects genuine confidence from connections, and Michael Appleby (13% strike rate, 1,724 runners) is a reliable hand at Southwell. Course form (W1P1) adds further confidence, and the form string 000521 shows a horse that has found its way back to a winning run last time, staying at the same class (ClassMv:=) on the same mark — the classic 'do it again' scenario. The moderate DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ are the only caveats but nothing here beats the SR+market+course combination. Each-way alternative: Not That Guy. Main danger: Not That Guy — Not That Guy (SR 83, 3/1) carries only 9-2 — a full 15lb less than Nostrum — and last-time-out won (Form:52-1) with Cieren Fallon (18% career strike rate) aboard for Hugo Palmer (13%, 1,573 runners), though the 24% drift is a concern that prevents it being the primary pick.

Verify· #22294

Full result

Winner: Montezin (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Montezin silks Montezin Antony Brittain · Cam Hardie 8/1
  2. 2 Enacting silks Enacting James Fanshawe · Jonny Peate 18/1
  3. 3 Nostrum silks Nostrum Fox #1 Michael Appleby · Kevin Stott 13/8
  4. 4 Elite Approach silks Elite Approach Joey Ramsden · Finley Marsh 40/1
  5. 5 Not That Guy silks Not That Guy Fox #2 Hugo Palmer · Cieren Fallon 11/4
  6. 6 King of Ithaca silks King of Ithaca Fox #4 James Tate · Rob Hornby 18/1
  7. 7 Supreme Clarets silks Supreme Clarets Richard & Peter Fahey · Oisin McSweeney 20/1
  8. 8 Aisling Oscar silks Aisling Oscar Adrian Keatley · M. P. Sheehy 25/1
  9. 9 Prince of Pillo silks Prince of Pillo Richard & Peter Fahey · Harry Russell 40/1
  10. 10 BillyB silks BillyB Fox #3 Craig Lidster · Daniel Tudhope 11/2
  11. 11 War Howl silks War Howl Ben Haslam · Andrew Mullen 20/1
  12. 12 Jersey Maverick silks Jersey Maverick Ben Haslam · Aiden Brookes 22/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Nostrum silks Nostrum 13/8 🥉 3RD
  2. 2 Not That Guy silks Not That Guy 3/1 5TH
  3. 3 BillyB silks BillyB 11/2 10TH
  4. 4 King of Ithaca silks King of Ithaca 10/1 6TH