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Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Mr Fox’s call
Kaito
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Kaito (SR:63, 7/4) is the class standout in this field and carries the highest Saturday Rating by a clear margin over the next-best pack of SR:55-60 horses. The decisive signal is the 36% market steam — money has piled in significantly, and George Boughey (18% strike rate, 1311 runners) is a high-volume yard that hits with fancied runners. Dropping three class tiers means this horse faces considerably weaker opposition than its previous runs, and while the form string 747 is unspectacular, the class descent explains it — Kaito was running in better races. Distance and going are unproven (DistFit:? / GoingFit:?) but at 1m on AW good, there is nothing in the profile to suggest an obvious incompatibility, and the weight of 9-9 is manageable for the SR carried. Each-way alternative: Arlecchino's Moon. Main danger: Arlecchino's Moon — Arlecchino's Moon (SR:54, 6/1) has steamed 42% in the market — the second-largest move in the field — Clifford Lee (17% strike rate) is a strong booking, and the class drop of two tiers gives it a genuine chance of outrunning its raw SR.
Full result
Winner: Arlecchino's Moon (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Arlecchino's Moon Fox #2 13/2
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2
Temple Court Fox #4 13/2
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3
Casablanca Dream 13/2
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4
Unbeatable Fame 66/1
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5
Le Grand Etoile 18/1
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6
Kaito Fox #1 6/5
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7
Strong Performance 10/1
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8
Courage Best Fox #3 17/2
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9
Thunda Struck 11/1
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10
Solar Mission 33/1
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11
Purrista 100/1
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12
Ubettanotblink 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Kaito 7/4 6TH
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2
Arlecchino's Moon 6/1 SP 12/1 🏆 WON
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3
Courage Best 13/2 8TH
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4
Temple Court 13/2 🥈 2ND