← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dine In Altior's Restaurant Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Shabalko d'Herm
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Shabalko d'Herm (SR 120, 2/1) carries top-weight of 11-10 but holds the joint-highest SR in this tiny four-runner Class 4 field and represents the yard with the combination of Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies plus Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle (17% strike rate from 1,009 rides). The market has shortened 5% since opening, indicating quiet but directional support, and the GoingFit:+ on today's good ground is a meaningful positive given the form string ends with a dash (likely absence rather than poor run). The 179-day absence is the key risk, but the stable's confidence shown by riding Sam and the in-movement pricing suggests they are happy with the horse going into this. Each-way alternative: Thickthorn Tom. Main danger: Thickthorn Tom — Thickthorn Tom (SR 124, 5/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field, has the strongest recent form (211122), proven distance fit (DistFit:+), and is trained by Dan Skelton (22% strike rate) with Harry Skelton aboard (26% strike rate) — the drift of 24% is likely explained by the MarkMv:+10 running off a mark 10lb higher than its last win, but if the class drop (ClassMv:↓1) compensates, it has the raw ability to win this easily.
Full result
Winner: Court In A Storm (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Court In A Storm Fox #3 3/1
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2
Lermoos Legend 7/2
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3
Shabalko d'Herm Fox #1 11/8
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4
Thickthorn Tom Fox #2 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3