← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Copybet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Fighting Falcon
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Fighting Falcon (SR:98, 7/2) is the most compelling selection on a convergence of signals: a 52% market steamers from morning prices is the sharpest move in the field by a considerable margin, suggesting strong stable confidence. The form string P33-1P shows a recent win at this class before a pulled-up run, and the headgear combination (tp) is retained — connections are not tinkering. Carrying 11-9 gives a 6lb weight advantage over top-weight Brookside La (12-0) and a meaningful edge on the highest SR runner in the field. The step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is a concern and the distance sample is thin (DistFit:?), but the explosive market move on a 5yo with a recent win overrides these reservations at 7/2. Each-way alternative: Not At That Price. Main danger: Brookside La — Brookside La (SR:109, 6/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton is the strongest trainer-jockey combination present, with Skelton's 22% strike rate across 2,546 runners representing genuine class — the drift from shorter prices may reflect the 186-day layoff and poor going fitness (GoingFit:-) rather than lack of ability, and on good ground today she remains the class act on raw SR.
Full result
Winner: Brookside La (IRE) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Brookside La Fox #2 15/8
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2
October Hill Fox #4 11/1
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3
Roe And Co 10/1
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4
Gasmani 18/1
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5
Vicki Vale 20/1
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6
Fighting Falcon Fox #1 7/2
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7
Getaway With You 33/1
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8
Constantinian 11/2
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9
Maximum Benefit 50/1
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Not At That Price Fox #3 13/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Fighting Falcon 7/2 6TH
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2
Brookside La 6/4 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Not At That Price 11/2
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4
October Hill 14/1 🥈 2ND