bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

20:00 Southwell (AW) Tue 06 Oct 2026 1m4f14y Class 4 Good 7 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Affettuoso

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/10 Est. 35%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Affettuoso (SR 88, 11/10) shares the top SR in the field but carries 9-9 — a 3lb advantage over joint-top-rated Nochebuena (9-12) and 8lb over Cliff Danger (9-1), making the weight profile favourable despite the MarkMv:+5 concern. Roger Varian's 20% strike rate is the best trainer figure in the race, and a 12% market move inward is meaningful at a price that is already short — the money is reinforcing the form case, not speculating. The form string 52-51 shows a consistent horse that won last time out dropping a class, and the class relief (ClassMv:↓1) gives genuine grounds to expect another forward showing. The main uncertainty is DistFit:? — this trip is unproven — but at 3 years old with a progressive profile, the step to 1m4f is a logical move that Varian's stable regularly executes well. Each-way alternative: Cliff Danger. Main danger: Cliff Danger — Cliff Danger (SR 88, 4/1) has a 21% market inward move, proven course form (W1P1 at Southwell), and carries just 9-1 — the lightest weight among the three joint-top-rated horses — giving it a meaningful pounds advantage if the class drop delivers on its promise.

Verify· #21899

Full result

Winner: Cliff Danger (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Cliff Danger Fox #2 Tom Ellis · Rob Hornby 10/3
2 Nochebuena Ralph Beckett · Hector Crouch 4/1
3 Now Maybe George Baker · Benoit de la Sayette 12/1
4 Without Compromise Antony Brittain · Cam Hardie 14/1
5 Affettuoso Fox #1 Roger Varian · Ray Dawson 11/10
6 Spirit of Jura Charlie Johnston · Connor Beasley 22/1
— Sassicaia Fox #3 Owen Burrows · Callum Rodriguez 6/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Affettuoso 11/10 5TH
2 Cliff Danger 4/1 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
3 Sassicaia 6/1