← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Ma Fille de Reve
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ma Fille de Reve holds the field's highest SR at 69 — a clear 9-point gap over the next-best Passerine (SR 60) — and carries the lightest competitive weight at 8-11, giving her a significant lb advantage over the heavier-weighted rivals. The market has emphatically endorsed her, shortening 36% since opening to 5/2 favourite, which is substantial backing in a 15-runner Class 6 nursery. Her form of 6-6-5-2 shows progressive improvement on her last outing, and dropping to Class 6 means she faces the weakest opposition of her career. The concern is her GoingFit:- on good-to-firm and DistFit:- at 6f, but her SR advantage is large enough and the class drop clear enough to overcome those reservations. Each-way alternative: Goodwood Meteor. Main danger: Goodwood Meteor — Goodwood Meteor (SR 53, 10/1) has steamed in 19% in the market despite a DistFit:- flag, suggesting Tregoning's yard has seen something at home, and as the trainer's likely #1 runner (carrying less weight at 9-7 versus stablemate Dissenter who has drifted badly), the market move demands respect in a wide-open Class 6.
Full result
Winner: Lady Of Hay (GB) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lady of Hay 18/1
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2
Blue Sign 25/1
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3
Goodwood Meteor Fox #3 8/1
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4
Passerine Fox #2 14/1
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5
Dream On Kent Fox #4 9/1
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6
Moriarty Moon 20/1
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7
Alfey Moon 6/1
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8
Ma Fille de Reve Fox #1 3/1
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9
Bossy Angel 28/1
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10
Honeymoon Bear 17/2
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11
Dissenter 15/2
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12
Holliesthedollie 11/1
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13
So Tempting 25/1
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—
Secret Rival 7/1
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—
Blue Fox 80/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ma Fille de Reve 5/2 8TH
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2
Passerine 11/1 🏁 4TH
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3
Goodwood Meteor 10/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Dream On Kent 17/2 5TH