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Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Back Straight
SPECULATIVE Advised 12/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Back Straight (SR:84, 12/1) is the most compelling play in the race on the back of a 32% market steam — the largest move in the field — which is a significant signal in a Listed contest at this price. The 2-1 form line shows a win last time out (rightmost digit), and the tongue-tie application suggests connections have found an answer to any previous quirk. While the SR of 84 looks modest, the race-wide SR ceiling is 107 (Action) and no horse here is operating at a level that makes SR the decisive factor alone; the market steam combined with the trainer angle (M D O'Callaghan at 12% overall) and Seamie Heffernan's experienced booking at 8% career strike rate across 1,290 rides adds credibility. At 12/1 against a field where the two market leaders — Action and Magnum Cor — are drifting materially (12% and 17% out respectively), the money is clearly landing here rather than with the shorter-priced rivals. Each-way alternative: Manton Bay. Main danger: Manton Bay — Manton Bay (SR:104, 11/2) has also been heavily backed in (32% market move matching Back Straight's steam), carries a GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, and is handled by W. J. Lee — a jockey with a 16% career strike rate across 1,901 rides — making it a genuine dual-steamer threat that could easily outrun its mark despite the +10 MarkMv concern.
Full result
Winner: Shaihaan (IRE) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Shaihaan 7/2
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2
Manton Bay Fox #2 3/1
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3
Caught U Sleeping Fox #3 11/2
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4
Alphecca 20/1
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5
Latin America Fox #4 13/2
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6
Action 10/3
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7
Back Straight Fox #1 11/1
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8
Garden Party 40/1
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Magnum Cor -
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Mr Vettori 18/1
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Millhone 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Back Straight 12/1 7TH
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2
Manton Bay 11/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Caught U Sleeping 17/2 🥉 3RD
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4
Latin America 17/2 5TH