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Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle

16:50 Fairyhouse Mon 05 Oct 2026 3m0f0y Good 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Dinoland silks

Dinoland

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Dinoland (SR:100, 5/2) is comfortably the highest-rated horse in this field by at least 4lb over Broken Ice (SR:96), and crucially carries only 11-8 — not punitive for a 3m handicap hurdle. The GoingFit:+ is the key differentiator: proven ability on good ground when most rivals have a minus or query mark. The recent form of PPP-11 is a red flag that demands scrutiny — three pulls followed by back-to-back wins — but the two wins arrived in sequence and he runs off the same mark (MarkMv:=), suggesting connections have him exactly where they want him. The slight drift (Mkt:out6%) is the only concern and stops this being High confidence, but a 6% drift is noise rather than signal in a 13-runner field at this level. Each-way alternative: Diamond Tipp. Main danger: Broken Ice — Broken Ice (SR:96) is only 4lb behind Dinoland on ratings, carries 5lb less weight, benefits from a 5lb mark reduction since its last win (MarkMv:-5), and John McConnell's yard has the volume and experience to have this horse race-fit despite 11 days since its last run — though the 30% market drift and GoingFit:- are genuine concerns.

Verify· #21665

Full result

Winner: Smackwater Jack (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Smackwater Jack silks Smackwater Jack Mrs Denise Foster · Danny Gilligan 9/1
  2. 2 Mickey Cohen silks Mickey Cohen Noel Meade · Mr Finn Tegetmeier(7) 9/1
  3. 3 Broken Ice silks Broken Ice Fox #3 John McConnell · Paddy Cody(7) 4/1
  4. 4 Sights Unseen silks Sights Unseen Dermot A McLoughlin · Alix Balfe(7) 25/1
  5. 5 Dinoland silks Dinoland Fox #1 W R Crawford · Sam Ewing 3/1
  6. 6 Diamond Tipp silks Diamond Tipp Fox #2 Martin Hassett · Jack Kennedy 5/1
  7. 7 Tippinaway silks Tippinaway Eric Larkin · Richard Deegan 28/1
  8. 8 Leading Endeavour silks Leading Endeavour P J Rothwell · Conor Clarke(7) 25/1
  9. 9 Technology silks Technology John McConnell · Shane Fitzsimons(7) 9/1
  10. 10 Mephisto silks Mephisto Gerard Keane · Eoghan Finegan(5) 22/1
  11. 11 Midleton Rare silks Midleton Rare Noel C. Kelly · Ms E Dunseath(7) 16/1
  12. 12 Joya Del Mar silks Joya Del Mar Dermot A McLoughlin · Mr J P Sutton(7) 20/1
  13. 13 Full Noise silks Full Noise Fox #4 Gary McGill · Philip Donovan 8/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Dinoland silks Dinoland 5/2 5TH
  2. 2 Diamond Tipp silks Diamond Tipp 6/1 6TH
  3. 3 Broken Ice silks Broken Ice 4/1 🥉 3RD
  4. 4 Full Noise silks Full Noise 6/1 13TH