← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Rex Regum
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 SP 11/4F Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Rex Regum (SR:77, 4/1) is the most compelling case when signals are stacked together. The market has steamed in 47% from its opening price — the strongest inward move in the field by a significant margin — and Tom Clover's yard strikes at 17% (best in the race), while Daniel Tudhope's 18% career strike rate makes this one of the sharpest jockey-trainer combinations declared. The form string 9-8-3-2-7 reads right-to-left as last run 7th, then a strong-looking 2nd, which shows progression, and the moderate DistFit:~ is no barrier at 6f given a GoingFit:? simply reflects limited data rather than a proven negative. At 4/1 with that volume of market support, the money is providing a clear steer that connections expect a forward move. Each-way alternative: Floral Maid. Main danger: Floral Maid — Floral Maid holds the highest SR in the field at 83, has an 8% market inward move, a tidy 2-2 form line showing consistent placing, and Ellison's yard is capable of improving juveniles quickly between runs — a horse that has hit the frame twice from two starts is clearly progressive and could easily step forward here.
Full result
Winner: Rex Regum (GB) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Rex Regum Fox #1 5/1
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2
Kigali 16/1
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3
Floral Maid Fox #2 10/3
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4
Classyfied 40/1
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5
Desert Smoke 11/1
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6
Social Spirit Fox #4 11/2
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7
Prosperity Angel Fox #3 4/1
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8
Turnstile 15/2
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9
State of Gold 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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4