Charlie Foley's Rated Novice Hurdle

14:45 Killarney Sun 04 Oct 2026 2m1f0y Good 8 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Celtic Alliance

SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 Est. 32%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Celtic Alliance (SR:154) is the standout on ability in this field, carrying just 11-3 — a full 11lb less than top-weight Belladaball — and is trained by Gordon Elliott (18% career strike rate) with Jack Kennedy in the saddle (22% career strike rate), the strongest connections combination in the race. The market has shortened 7% since opening, confirming quiet confidence from the yard. The 164-day absence is a concern and distance/going are unproven (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?), but Elliott and Kennedy routinely debut returning novices off a long break with purpose, and the SR advantage of 11 points over the next-best runner (Belladaball at 143) is substantial at this level. Good ground suits a young progressive type, and at 6/1 there is genuine value against the SR and connections profile. Each-way alternative: Lips Freedom. Main danger: Lips Freedom — Lips Freedom (SR:122, 9/4) is the market leader, has run recently (15 days), and carries a manageable 11-12 — but a MarkMv:+14 means it is running off a mark 14lb above its last win, which is a significant ask for a horse trained by an 8% strike-rate handler in a yard without obvious marquee support.

Verify· #21425

Full result

Winner: Cocofred (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Cocofred Henry de Bromhead · Darragh O'Keeffe 5/1
2 Firebrand Fox #4 John J Nallen · Alan O'Sullivan(5) 4/1
3 Rosenborg P J Rothwell · Mr R Sugrue(7) 16/1
4 Celtic Alliance Fox #1 Gordon Elliott · Jack Kennedy 17/2
5 Belladaball Fox #2 Gavin Cromwell · Keith Donoghue 17/2
6 No Mon No Fun Darren Collins · Carl Millar(5) 25/1
— Lips Freedom Fox #3 Andrew Kinirons · Donagh Meyler 6/5
— Le Roi Du Livet Philip Fenton · Brian Hayes -

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Celtic Alliance 6/1 🏁 4TH
2 Belladaball 5/1 5TH
3 Lips Freedom 9/4
4 Firebrand 10/3 🥈 2ND