M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle

15:55 Listowel Sat 26 Sep 2026 2m4f0y Good 17 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Livio

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%

7TH

Mr Fox says

Livio (SR:121, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a featherweight 10-8 relative to his ability — a meaningful lbs edge over Stede Bonnet (SR:120, 10-13) who is rated almost identically but carries 5lb more. The Mullins/Townend combination is the most potent in the race by a considerable margin: Mullins fires at 26% career strike rate and Townend at 38%, and the market has shortened 9% since opening, suggesting quiet confidence from connections. The form line 1/301 shows a recent win and the horse is lightly raced at five, pointing to upside. The only reservation is the DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags — Livio is relatively unexposed at this trip and going combination — but that inexperience is offset by the trainer's ability to have horses spot-on for a target race. Each-way alternative: Stede Bonnet. Main danger: Stede Bonnet — Stede Bonnet (SR:120, 8/1) has steamed in 37% in the market — the biggest move in the race — carries proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ credentials that Livio currently lacks, and Elliott at 18% sends horses to win, not to make up numbers.

Verify· #19919

Full result

Winner: Luck Between Us (IRE) at SP 8/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.