← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Michael Raby Memorial Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Valentine Catcher
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Valentine Catcher (SR:71, 11/4) is joint-top on SR alongside Kings Merchant but carries a significantly more favourable weight of 9-11 versus Kings Merchant's 10-0, a 3lb advantage that matters on good ground over 6f in a Class 6 handicap. The market has shortened 18% from the opening price — meaningful support in a field of this quality — and with a MarkMv of -19 the handicapper has been generous, giving connections a prime opportunity. Tim Easterby's yard runs two here but Dream Deal (SR:44, Mkt:out44%) is clearly the second string, leaving Valentine Catcher as the stable's #1 with David Allan booked rather than Fentiman. The GoingFit:- is a flag to note, but the class drop from their last run (ClassMv:↓1) and the dramatic mark reduction offset that concern. Each-way alternative: Hurstwood. Main danger: Hurstwood — Hurstwood (SR:70, 9/2) carries just 9-6 — 5lb less than Valentine Catcher — and boasts an outstanding course record of W4P8 at Ripon, the most compelling course-specialist profile in the field, with recent form showing a win two runs ago (Form:604711).
Full result
Winner: Angel Summer (IRE) at SP 8/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Angel Summer 17/2
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2
Taygar Fox #4 7/1
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3
Kings Merchant Fox #2 5/1
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4
Hurstwood Fox #3 5/1
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5
Valentine Catcher Fox #1 9/4
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6
Cheerleader 16/1
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7
Uncertainty 18/1
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8
Dream Deal 16/1
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9
Liverpool Star 9/1
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10
Solar Cooper 28/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Valentine Catcher 11/4 5TH
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2
Kings Merchant 9/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Hurstwood 9/2 🏁 4TH
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4
Taygar 15/2 🥈 2ND