← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Hope of Acklam
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 34%
Mr Fox says
Hope of Acklam (SR:69, 3/1) is the top-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and has steamed in 20% in the market — the most significant positive move of any runner. Dropping two class tiers makes this a much easier assignment than recent starts, and Billy Garritty (12% SR) is a competent booking. The concern is GoingFit:? and DistFit:? (trip is 7f219y, a stiff test for a two-year-old), but the class drop and SR advantage outweigh those unknowns. The form figure of '3' last time out at Class 5 or higher, combined with a course place (W0P1 at Redcar), suggests the horse handles this track and is coming into form at the right time. Each-way alternative: Astral Calling. Main danger: Astral Calling — Astral Calling (SR:61, 3/1) is trained by K.R. Burke whose 20% career strike rate is the best in the field, and the horse's last run produced a '2' — its best recent finish — suggesting it is coming to a peak, though DistFit:- is a genuine concern at this extended trip.
Full result
Winner: King Of Persia (GB) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
King of Persia 12/1
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2
Son of A Fish Fox #3 9/4
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3
Diplomacy 18/1
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4
Wells Fargo Stage 40/1
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5
Craven Force 18/1
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6
Astral Calling Fox #2 3/1
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7
Right Up My Ali 33/1
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8
Hope of Acklam Fox #1 11/4
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9
Dakota Brave 8/1
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—
Lopefernza 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Hope of Acklam 3/1 8TH
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2
Astral Calling 3/1 6TH
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3
Son of A Fish 5/2 🥈 2ND