← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Heineken Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Storm Star
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Storm Star (SR:98, 5/2) holds the strongest Saturday Rating in the field and is running off a mark 4lb below his last win — a meaningful edge in a Class 2 handicap. The 19% market shortening is the standout move in this field and represents informed money rather than public drift. Trainer Andrew Balding (18% strike rate, 2,992 runners — a yard of serious scale) pairs with Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate) giving the horse elite connections. GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good ground, and at 5/2 there is still genuine value relative to the 32% win probability I assign. Each-way alternative: Jimmy Speaking. Main danger: Jimmy Speaking — Jimmy Speaking (SR:96, 7/2) has steamed in 49% since opening — the most dramatic move in the field — carries only 8-9 (a 6lb weight advantage over Storm Star) and steps up a class with strong market confidence behind it, suggesting connections believe the form figure improvement is real and imminent.
Full result
Winner: Tribal Chief (FR) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tribal Chief Fox #2 10/3
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2
Storm Star Fox #1 2/1
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3
Gun Carriage 50/1
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4
Darkness 13/2
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5
Two Tempting 12/1
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6
Oliver Show 9/1
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7
Jimmy Speaking Fox #3 7/2
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—
Racingbreaks Ryder 18/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Storm Star 5/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Tribal Chief 7/2 SP 11/4 🏆 WON
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3
Jimmy Speaking 7/2 7TH