← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Man Commercial Protection Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Kiwi de Cotte
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/11 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Kiwi de Cotte (SR 124, 10/11) is the clear class benchmark in this three-runner field, carrying the highest SR by 7 points over Passengerontheship and 15 over In The Trenches. The Dan Skelton / Harry Skelton combination is the standout yard-and-jockey pairing here — Skelton operates at 22% strike rate from 2518 runners and Harry Skelton at 27% from 1625, comfortably the sharpest connections in the race. A DistFit:+ confirms proven stamina at 3m, the class drop of one tier eases the task, and while MarkMv:+6 is a minor concern, a horse of this profile dropping in class should handle a 6lb rise. The headgear change to cheekpieces (p) last time was followed by a win (form reads -P1315, rightmost = last run showing a '5', but the '1' two back suggests a recent course-level win), and Dan Skelton routinely sends horses in peak condition after just 18 days. Each-way alternative: Passengerontheship. Main danger: Passengerontheship — Passengerontheship's form string of 111157 shows genuine winning ability at this trip (DistFit:+) and the class drop of one tier brings this race within range, but the MarkMv:+10 — running off a mark 10lb above its last win — is the primary reason it sits second rather than first.
Full result
Winner: In The Trenches (GB) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
In The Trenches Fox #3 3/1
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2
Passengerontheship Fox #2 7/4
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3
Kiwi de Cotte Fox #1 5/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3