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Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Yes Day
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 SP 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Yes Day (SR:106, 9/4) is the class leader in this small field and arrives off a mark 14lb lower than his last win — the most favourable MarkMv in the race by some distance. The 7% market shortening confirms the money is on board. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. at 15% strike rate from 523 rides is a meaningful booking, and the 12-0 topweight is manageable given the SR advantage over the field. GoingFit:~ is a mild concern on good ground, but the sharply dropped mark and market confidence outweigh that reservation. Flashy Boy is the obvious danger but his GoingFit:- directly undermines his claims today. Each-way alternative: Ballynaheer. Main danger: Flashy Boy — Flashy Boy (SR:98, 10/11 favourite) carries the lightest weight at 10-2, has ★★★★☆ AI stars and a solid recent form line of -45312, and trainer Robbie Llewellyn's 20% strike rate from 94 runners is the best in the race — his GoingFit:- is a genuine worry but connections clearly feel the class drop and weight advantage override it.
Full result
Winner: Yes Day (IRE) at SP 2/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Yes Day Fox #1 5/2
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2
Ballynaheer Fox #3 17/2
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3
Flashy Boy Fox #2 4/5
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4
Balkardy 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3