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Coolmore Stud Little Big Bear Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Dancing Saxon
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Dancing Saxon (SR:113, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries only 9-2, giving it a 5lb weight advantage over the 4-year-olds at 9-7. The form string -11213 shows consistent competitiveness at this level with two recent wins, and crucially both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven ability at 7f on good ground — the most specific going/distance alignment in the field. The market has shortened 33% since opening, the strongest steaming from any credible contender, signalling strong stable and market confidence. As Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard runner with Declan McDonogh booked (more experienced booking than stablemates on Scott McCullagh and Nathan Crosse), this is clearly the yard's #1 hope from their four-runner team. Each-way alternative: Catalina Delcarpio. Main danger: Catalina Delcarpio — Catalina Delcarpio (SR:112, 7/2) has steamed in 38% — the most dramatic market move in the field — carries the same weight as Dancing Saxon's opponents at 9-7 but has the second-highest SR and DistFit:+, and Pat Twomey's 23% strike rate is the best of any trainer in this race, suggesting the market knows something tangible about peak fitness after a 74-day break.
Full result
Winner: Magny Cours (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Magny Cours 6/1
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2
Dancing Saxon Fox #1 3/1
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3
Spinning Around 11/1
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4
Wannabe Royal 16/1
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5
Josh's Joy 50/1
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6
Princess Child 9/1
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7
Cromac Quay Fox #4 9/2
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8
Greydreambeliever 66/1
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9
Wild Bessie 50/1
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10
Catalina Delcarpio Fox #2 5/2
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11
Stugardia 33/1
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12
Prevalence 12/1
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—
Pivotal Attack Fox #3 11/2
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—
Suzie Songs 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Dancing Saxon 4/1 🥈 2ND
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2
Catalina Delcarpio 7/2 10TH
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3
Pivotal Attack 11/2
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4
Cromac Quay 7/1 7TH