← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Newtownanner Stud Irish EBF Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
So Lovely
HIGH Advised 11/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
So Lovely (SR 115, 11/8) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — 11 SR points above the next-best Bellesque (SR 104) and 21 above Samnina (SR 94). The form reads 2-2-1 with a recent win just 9 days ago, confirming peak freshness rather than fatigue, and she steps up one class tier with Ryan Moore retained — a booking that at 27% career strike rate is the strongest jockey signal in the field. The market has shortened 12% to 11/8, confirming stable and market confidence. DistFit confirmed (+) at a mile and AP O'Brien's 22% trainer strike rate is the best in the field; with Exceptionally drifting 59% and Speckles drifting 20%, So Lovely is clearly the yard's number-one shot. Each-way alternative: Samnina. Main danger: Bellesque — Bellesque (SR 104, 7/2) has proven distance and going credentials (DistFit:+ GoingFit:+), solid 2-1-3 form at the same class level, and Joseph O'Brien's stable-pick jockey Declan McDonogh retained — a slight drift to 7/2 is the only caution but the distance/going double-fit makes her the most credible threat to So Lovely.
Full result
Winner: Sea Of Rain (IRE) at SP 18/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sea Of Rain 25/1
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2
Ballyskeagh 16/1
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3
Damsel In Distress Fox #4 12/1
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4
Exceptionally 12/1
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5
Speckles 14/1
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6
So Lovely Fox #1 5/4
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7
Tosca No Candis 25/1
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8
Bellesque Fox #2 10/3
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9
Sword Of State 80/1
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10
Samnina Fox #3 5/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
So Lovely 11/8 6TH
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2
Bellesque 7/2 8TH
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3
Samnina 5/1 10TH
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4
Damsel In Distress 16/1 🥉 3RD