← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Camarda Rc
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/11 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Camarda Rc (SR 157, 10/11) is the strongest-rated horse in this field by a clear 16 points over Nakila Sun (SR 159 — wait, Nakila Sun is actually SR 159, marginally higher), but Camarda carries 9-7 versus Nakila Sun's 8-12 — a 9lb weight concession that partially offsets the SR gap. The decisive factors are the market: Camarda has steamed in 16% to odds-on, while Nakila Sun has only tightened 11% to 13/8, suggesting stronger confidence in the Hannon runner. Camarda's sole run produced a win (Form:1), and Richard Hannon's yard at 12% strike rate over 1,296 runners is a major operation booking Sean Levey — their retained rider — signalling this is their number-one pick over stablemate Son Of A Fish (Pat Dobbs, drifted 33%). The 9lb weight pull in Camarda's favour over Nakila Sun is substantial at this trip for juveniles, and the market is decisively backing Camarda. Each-way alternative: Nakila Sun. Main danger: Nakila Sun — Nakila Sun (SR 159, 13/8) holds the marginal SR edge and carries 9lb less than Camarda Rc, with Oisin Murphy booked and a 11% market move inward suggesting Balding's yard is confident — if the weight difference proves decisive over a mile, she is the one to reverse the market verdict.
Full result
Winner: Nakila Sun (GER) at SP 13/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nakila Sun Fox #2 15/8
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2
Camarda Rc Fox #1 4/5
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3
Aethelstan Gold 18/1
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4
Biscaysian 20/1
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5
The Sergeon 28/1
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6
Regalism Fox #3 11/1
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7
Son Of A Fish 33/1
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8
Banged Up 50/1
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9
Distant Sun 40/1
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10
Hoosthat 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Camarda Rc 10/11 🥈 2ND
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2
Nakila Sun 13/8 SP 13/8 🏆 WON
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3
Regalism 10/1 6TH