← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Assured Data Protection Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Plage De Havre
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/1 SP 11/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Plage De Havre (SR:97, 8/1) carries the joint-highest SR in the field and has steamed in 45% from opening price — the strongest market move of any runner by some distance — signalling significant informed support. At 9-12 the weight is manageable given the SR advantage, and DistFit:+ confirms this 1m3f188y trip suits. Andrew Balding (19% strike rate, 1464 runners) is a serious operator at this level, and P J McDonald completes a confident booking. The form string 31-639 shows inconsistency but the market is clearly telling us this is the day connections expect a big run, and at 8/1 there is genuine value if that confidence is warranted. Each-way alternative: Primo Lara. Main danger: Primo Lara — Primo Lara (SR:97, 11/2) shares the joint-top SR, carries only 8-12 giving a weight edge of 14lb over Plage De Havre, has won two of his last two races (form 962511), and has also been backed in 23% — a progressive horse at a lighter weight is the most credible threat.
Full result
Winner: Plage De Havre (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Plage De Havre Fox #1 13/2
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2
French Duke 10/1
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3
Say What You See 12/1
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4
Primo Lara Fox #2 11/2
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5
Ernst Blofeld 20/1
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6
Sportingsilvermine 16/1
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7
Tycoon Fox #4 12/1
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8
Jimmy Speaking 40/1
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9
Wave Rider Fox #3 11/2
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10
Master Vintner 14/1
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11
Genealogy 33/1
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12
Master Builder 6/1
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13
Shadow Dance 50/1
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14
Zanndabad 12/1
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15
Explode 12/1
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16
Cuff It 28/1
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Truth Be Told -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Plage De Havre 8/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON
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2
Primo Lara 11/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Wave Rider 5/1 9TH
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4
Tycoon 11/1 7TH