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Happy 70th Birthday Helen Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Rebel Tribesman
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 SP 2/1F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Rebel Tribesman (SR:123, 2/1) is the clear class leader in this modest Class 4 field, carrying a SR that is 9 points clear of the next-best contender. The form string 122-12 reads as consistent and competitive — a recent second and win in the last two runs — and crucially the market has shortened 13% since opening, indicating informed support. Jamie Snowden hits at 25% career strike rate, and with MarkMv:= the horse is running off the exact mark it last won on, which is the ideal handicap scenario. The flat 11-7 weight means no punitive burden over this 2m6f trip. Each-way alternative: Kom Tu Voudras. Main danger: Kom Tu Voudras — Kom Tu Voudras (SR:114, 7/2) has steamed in 30% in the market — the joint-largest move in the field — Harry Cobden takes the ride (21% career strike rate), and the tongue-tie first application (tp) suggests connections are trying something new to unlock improvement, which in a 5-runner field at this level could be enough to unsettle the favourite.
Full result
Winner: Rebel Tribesman (IRE) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Rebel Tribesman Fox #1 7/4
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2
Kittys Glance Fox #3 7/2
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3
Torrent 4/1
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4
Notnowlinda 7/1
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Kom Tu Voudras Fox #2 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3