← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
This Moment
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 SP 11/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
This Moment (SR 85, 4/1, 9-9) is the play despite a poor DistFit record, on the strength of a meaningful 12% market move inward from a Boughey yard running at 18% strike rate — the money is moving for a reason. The weight is favourable: second-lightest of the top three SRs, 2lb below Casino Star and 2lb below Influencer Man, meaningful over 5f on a competitive all-weather surface. The 2424 form string shows consistent involvement at the business end, and dropping back to the minimum trip here at the same class level (ClassMv:=) suits a horse that clearly stays in the mix. The main concern is DistFit:- but at 4/1 with stable confidence apparent, the value outweighs that reservation. Each-way alternative: Casino Star. Main danger: Casino Star — Casino Star (SR 85, 7/2, 9-6) drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at this trip and going, and carries the lightest weight of the top three — Burke's yard at 19% is the best strike rate in the field, and the 3 on its recent form string shows it finished well last time.
Full result
Winner: This Moment (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
This Moment Fox #1 4/1
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2
Star People 4/1
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3
Social Spirit 6/1
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4
Influencer Man 5/2
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5
Casino Star Fox #2 7/2
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6
May Bee In Profit Fox #3 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3